Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Electoral Math 9/26/12


Heavy day of polling, with 8 new polls in 7 states were released today, telling much the same story that polls had told for the last 2 weeks. Obama continues to gain ground overall.
No changes on the map today in electoral count, or in color, but Obama’s lead expands by about 40,000 votes from 4.56% to 4.59%.
Today’s polls showed considerable leads for Obama nearly across the board.
Florida, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 53, Romney 44
Ohio, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 53, Romney 43
Colorado, Gravis Marketing: Obama 50, Romney 46
Iowa, PPP (D): Obama 51, Romney 44
Pennsylvania, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama 54, Romney 42
Pennsylvania, Franklin & Marshall: Obama 52, Romney 43
Massachusetts, Rasmussen: Obama 55, Romney 40
Maryland: Gonzales Research: Obama 55, Romney 36
I’d really like to get some more polling in 3 swing states that haven’t been polled much since the conventions. In Missouri, only Rasmussen has polled in September. In New Hampshire, there have been 3 different pollsters (Rasmussen, ARG & UNH) with vastly conflicting results ranging from Romney +3 to Obama +5. Clarity here would be nice. In North Carolina, there was a considerable amount of polling coming into and out of the Democratic Convention but none in the last 7 days. Right now in my projection NC is a tie (49.54% - 49.54%), although the last 3 polls show small leads for Obama.

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