Mitt Romney continues to gain in my projections, as Nevada is moved into the toss-up category, after 3 polls in the last week have shown Obama ahead by 1 in 2 of the polls and a tie in the third.
Additionally, New Hampshire is moved from leaning to barely Obama after Rasmussen released a poll showing a tie. That said, it’s actually down from Rasmussen’s last poll in NH (9/18) when Romney was shown ahead by 3.
Romney picks up 133,000 net votes tonight (0.10%) and has moved within 3.7% in tonight’s projection.
Based on post-debate polls, a case can be made that Romney is ahead (if even just slightly) in Florida, Virginia & Colorado. Even with these 3 states, Romney would only be at 257 EV. The path of least resistance to get to 270 runs through Ohio. 5 polls have been taken there since the debate showing Obama ahead in 3 and Romney ahead in the other 2. All of the polls are within the margin of error, with the range between Obama +4 and Romney +1. Using only these 5 polls, my Obama would be ahead by about 0.9%. As in 2004, Ohio looks very likely to be ground zero in the 2012 election.
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