Another good day for Mitt Romney in my projection, as Barack Obama loses 18 EV in my projection. This represents the first time in months when Obama has not had leads accounting for at least the 270 EV needed to win the election.
In Ohio, Rasmussen & NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist College released polls showing Obama ahead 48-47 and 51-45, respectively. While Obama has held leads in 5 of the 8 polls released since last week’s debate, my projectiong now shows his lead down to 1.5% and Ohio is moved into the toss-up category.
The upper midwest also had some color changes today. Both Michigan & Wisconsin were moved from leaning to barely Obama after new polls from Detroit News and Gravis Marketing released polls in Michigan showing relatively small leads than prior to the debate. The same holds true in Wisconsin where Rasmussen and CBS/NY Times/Quinnipiac University showed small leads for Obama as well. Right now the projection in both states is about 5 points, although in the 3 polls released in Wisconsin since last week’s debate have shown smaller leads than that.
The popular vote also showed a HUGE shift, primarily driven by a new SurveyUSA poll released in California, where Romney trails by only 14. In their last poll a month ago, Obama held a lead of 22.
The overall lead fell by a net 662,000 votes (0.47%) tonight, down to 3.21%. As I have been saying for days, this shift will take some time to roll through as more data becomes available.
There is considerable evidence now that Romney’s post-debate bump has leveled out. Most battleground states where there have been multiple polls in the last week are showing a much more stable race. That said, my popular vote projection has not caught up to the full state of the race. I believe based on all of the data that I have looked at we’re looking at a very close race, probably no more than a point or two nationally either way. A little stability (and a lot of polling data) will help move the popular vote projection along.
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