Electoral Math 10/13/12

A new feature tonight for the toss-up states (Currently, NV, CO, OH, VA, NH). I’ve added a new color that looks at the current leader in my projections. As of right now, my official projection is Obama 253 EV, Romney 235 EV. However, when toss-ups are given to the current leader, the final tally becomes Obama 294, Romney 244. That said, it is very likely that Virginia will flip with any new polling that comes out, unless it shows a clear lead (> O+5).
Currently my toss-up state projections are:
Nevada: Obama 49.59%, Romney 48.21%. It is important to note that there has not been a single poll all year that has showed Mitt Romney in the lead. That said, the last 5 polls have all been between a tie and Obama +4.
Colorado: Romney 49.66%, Obama 48.70%. In the 5 polls since the debate (5 1/2 if the Gravis Marketing polls which took place both on the night of the debate and the night after), have been pretty widely scattered with ranges from R+4 to O+4. That said, 5 of the last 7 have shown Romney in the lead.
Ohio: Obama 49.88%, Romney 48.53%. Here there have been 8 polls in the last 9 days, with margins from O+6 to R+1. 6 of the 8 polls have been +1 on one side or the other, with both Romney & Obama ahead in 3 of those.
Virginia: Obama 49.54%, Romney 49.42%. Here there have been 6 polls since the debate, with Romney ahead in 4 of them, while Obama is ahead in the other 2. There’s been some divergenve in the polling here as well, as spread have been from O+5 to R+3. Here it looks like the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll that has Obama ahead by 5 appears to be a bit of an outlier and as new data becomes available will likely switch the leader.
New Hampshire: Obama 49.68%, Romney 48.97%. There has only been 2 polls here since the debate with 1 a tie and the other a 4 point Romney lead. That said, polling data has been largely inconsistent here, as WMUR/Univ. of New Hampshire during the week of the debate (9/30-10/6) had Obama ahead by 6. It’s hard to know right now where the state of the race is exactly.
Overall, the gains continue for Mitt Romney although the pace has clearly slowed on the national level. The race is essentially stable since the immediate aftermath of last week’s debate. It remains to be seen (likely Monday) if the VP debate had any impact one way or the other (I expect it hasn’t). And even before we can detect a clear trend, the 2nd presidential debate will have taken place.