11/4: A couple polls have been added since my post last night, but there are no changes in the final map other than a few votes getting added to Sen. McCain's total.
All states have been updated with all polls through yesterday. Please use the links on the left side of the page to look at any state data. States where the election is expected to close (within 10%) have comments in the posts. Any polls released today will be ignored.
The first poll closing times occur at 7 PM Eastern Time tonight and include some of the most contested states: Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Pay attention to Indiana, Georgia and Virginia in this group.
Georgia and Virginia are similar in that both states are separated by about 5 points although for opposite candidates. The thing to look for is which of those 2 states get called first. If Virginia gets called earlier than Georgia (particularly if its called within the first hour or so), it could mean that polling has underestimated the under 30 vote and the African-American vote. If this is the case it will be a nationwide trend.
The opposite is also true in Georgia. If Georgia gets called relatively quickly it could mean that there is a "Bradley Effect" in play or that younger voters are not turning out or that the 72 hour Republican GOTV program has worked.
The other state to look at is Indiana. Indiana is one of only 3 states that are within 2 points in my projections. If Indiana gets called relatively early it will be good for the winning side.
7:30 am: I've been curious all summer if my vote count projection would hold up. I've got it at just shy of 138 million. If there's any math wonks out there take a look at the Methodology page I wrote in June describing how my projections were arrived at.
7:20 pm: No surprises as Kentucky is called for Sen. McCain and Vermont is called for Sen. Obama.
7:45 pm: NBC calls South Carolina for Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain now leads 16-3. So far I'm 3 for 3, but none of those are at all a surprise.
8:00 pm: OK & TN are called for Sen. McCain, ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, NJ, PA & MD are called for Sen. Obama. Obama now leads 103-34. Pennsylvania is the most important of these states for Sen. McCain and is a devastating blow to his campaign. There is not many scenarios where Sen. McCain can still will win.
8:32 pm: Alabama and its 9 electoral votes are called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama still leads 103-43.
8:35 pm: Sen. McCain wins Georgia. This is one of the states I mentioned this morning. Because Georgia went for McCain before Virginia for Obama, it is generally good news for Sen. McCain. 103-58 Obama.
9:00 pm: KS, ND and WY for McCain. NY, MI, MN, WI and RI for Obama. Sen. Obama's lead is now 175-70.
9:06 pm: Arkansas is called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama now leads 175-76.
9:22 pm: Ohio is called for Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama leads by 195-76. This means he needs only the west coast Washington, Oregon and California to get to 268, any other state will win him the election. It's just about over.
9:26 pm: Louisiana goes to McCain. Obama 195-85.
9:30 pm: New Mexico goes to Obama. He now leads 200-85.
9:38 pm: West Virginia goes to McCain. Obama is ahead 200-90.
9:54 pm: Texas is called for Sen. McCain. Obama's lead is cut to 200-124.
10:00 pm: McCain wins Utah, Obama wins Iowa. Obama now ahead 207-129.
10:08 pm: Mississippi is called for Sen. McCain. Electoral count now 207-135.
10:33 pm: The election is likely to be called at 11:00 when polls in California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii close. Wins in these states for Sen. Obama will make his electoral vote total 284.
10:36 pm: South Dakota is called for Sen. McCain. Sen. Obama now leads 207-138. So far, I'm 35 for 35, although admittedly most of these were not expected to be close.
10:40 pm: 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes are called for Sen. McCain. The Omaha district is still in play. For those of you that are not aware how Nebrasks distributes its electoral votes, I'll explain. The winner of the state is given 2 electoral votes (for the Senate seats). Each congressional district is given its own electoral and is given to the winner of that district. Right now, the district direcctly surrounding Omaha is considered too close to call, although the state and the other 2 congressional districts have both been called for Sen. McCain. New total? Obama 207-142.
11:00 pm: NBC News declares Sen. Obama the next president of the United States.
11:03 pm: As a matter of housekeeping, Sen. McCain wins Idaho and Sen. Obama wins California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. Sen. Obama now leads 284-146.
11:07 pm: Virginia is moved into Sen. Obama's column. He now leads 297-146.
11:13 pm: Colorado is called for Sen. Obama. 306-146.
11:15 pm: Florida is called for Sen. Obama. 333-146.
11:22 pm: Arizona goes to Sen. McCain. 333-156.
11:36 pm: Nevada goes to Sen. Obama. 338-156.
12:40 am: No changes in the last hour. I'm signing off for the night. For those of you keeping score (and I trust that's likely only me), there have been 45 states called so far (plus Washington D.C.) and so far, I have not missed a state. It is possible at this point the I could get Indiana (which I had for McCain) and North Carolina (which I had for Obama) wrong on my final map. We'll see in the morning.
1:40 am: 40 minutes after the polls close in Alaska, Sen. McCain is called the winner. Obama leads 338-159. So far, with 4 states left in play, I have not yet missed. By and large, this is the case with several projection sites.
5:45 am: This morning I wake to find Montana for Sen. McCain and Indiana for Sen. Obama. My first miss. Missouri and North Carolina and the 2nd district of Nebraska are still undecided. 349-162.
11/5 (9:00 pm): Missouri and North Carolina are still toss-ups, however, Sen. McCain holds a small lead in Missouri and Sen. Obama holds a small lead in North Carolina. If they hold, I will have correctly picked 49 out of 50 states. I was 49 out of 50 in 2004 as well. I'll take it. One of these years I'll get it right.
