Vermont Primary

Castleton State College released a poll in Vermont today showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7 points over Rick Santorum.  This is the only poll taken here since July.  That said, I'm not sure this poll is much more accurate.  According to Nate Silver at the New York Times, poll that have been taken 6-10 days prior to a priamry so far this season missed the actual margin by 12 points.  It just goes to show how wild this primary season has been.  Because of this, I'm actually changing my methodology a bit to try to limit polls used in my final calculation to the last week before the vote actually occurs.  I'm still going to be looking for multiple polls to use, so in that case, if there is not enough polling data (as will likely be the case in Vermont), I will still use older data.

Vermont

Vermont

9/28: 3 new polls were released in Vermont showing Sen. Obama ahead by 18-24 points. His lead is about 22 here and Vermont remains safely Obama's.
6/20: Vermont is a very deep shade of blue. It is unlikely McCain will compete here.