Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

5 new polls get incorporated into my map today resulting in 3 color changes.  First, in New Hampshire WMUR/UNH released a poll Tuesday that shows Pres. Obama ahead here by 9.  This is in contrast to a Dartmouth poll taken a few weeks ago that showed Gov. Romney ahead by 2.  It does however fall in line with their previous polss (which admittedly is 3 months old when Obama was ahead by 10.  As a result of this poll, Pres. Obama's lead which I said in my previous polls was a very tenuous 7 points, down under the 6 point threshhold and moves New Hampshire from Leaning to Barely Obama.

In Texas, a new PPP poll was released showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7.  There have only been 2 polls in Texas this season so far, both of which were taken by PPP and had nearly identical results.  Texas remains unchanged as a result of this poll.  Romney +7.5.

In Arizona, 2 new polls were released showing the state a statistical dead heat.  Behavior Research Center released a poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 2, 42-40.  Arizona State head the exact opposite result with Romney ahead 42-40.  As a result of these polls, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection drops to about 5 points and is currently being heavily influenced by Rasmussen's poll taken last month where Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 11.  Based on all the surrounding polls, this may be a bit of an outlier, but I'm still inclined to believe that Arizona is not quite as close as some of these polls might indicate.  Still, Arizona is moved from leaning to barely Romney.

In New Mexico, PPP released a new poll showing Pres. Obama by 14.  New Mexico remains basically unchanged as their previous poll taken in December showed the gap at 15.  New Mexico remains safely on Obama's side.  Obama +16.

Finally in Virginia, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This is in stark contrast to a poll they took there just a month ago when Barack Obama was ahead by 9.  As a result of this poll, Virginia moves from leaning to barely Obama.  I would not at all be surprised if Virginia moves in to the toss-up with the nexy poll released there if these results are confirmed.  For now, I've got Obama +3, but a very tenuous 3 at that.

New Hampshire

11/4: Sen. McCain spent some time in New Hampshire this past weekend to try to shore up support as an insurance policy in case he loses Nevada. I don't see anything that would make me think he's moved the needle here. Obama +11.

New Hampshire

9/26: 6 new polls have been release, 5 of which show Sen. Obama with a small lead (Rasmussen has Sen. McCain ahead by 2). New Hampshire remains a toss-up, but Sen. Obama has taken over the lead and will likely hold it for a while as the oldest polls favor Sen. McCain.

9/22: New Hampshire is moved back to toss-up after 2 new polls show small leads for Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain has taken a small lead in New Hampshire and may move the state barely on his side in more polling confirms this week's results.

9/10: CNN/Time's new poll in New Hampshire shows Sen. Obama ahead by 6. Like Michigan, it appears there may not have been a bounce toward Sen. McCain here. In fact, Sen. Obama's lead expands to 2 and a half points here in my projection and New Hampshire is moved from toss-up to barely Obama's.

8/21: A new American Research Group poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1 confirming yesterday's result in Rasmussen's poll. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrinks below 2 and New Hampshire is moved from barely Obama to toss-up status.
8/20: Rasmussen's new poll shows the race in New Hampshire growing even tighter. Sen. Obama's lead is cut to 1 in this poll and just over 2 in my projection. For now New Hampshire remains barely Obama's, but any further tightening will result in moving New hampshire to toss-up status. 7/24: Rasmussen's new poll confirm ARG's results and show a significant tightening in the race since their last poll 5 weeks ago. Sen. Obama's lead falls to just over 4 points, compared to a 9 point lead just 3 days ago when the UNH poll was released.
7/22: Today's ARG poll in New Hampshire confirm the results of yesterday's UNH poll. It also represents a 10 point slide in Sen. Obama's lead here in the last 4 weeks. As a result, Sen,. McCain cuts into the lead and it is now under 6 points. For the second day in a row, New Hampshire changes color slightly and moves to barely Obama. 7/21: Ask and ye shall receive. Yesterday, I mentioned that no new data had been made available in New Hampshire. Today, a new UNH poll was released showing a 9 point swing toward Obama since their last poll 3 months ago. With this poll, both Dartmouth's poll and UNH's from April are removed from my projection and a huge swing results. New Hampshire is removed from toss-up status and changes to leaning Obama. These are the first electoral votes changed since June 26th when Sen. Obama gaind 17 electoral votes Michigan.
6/20: A traditional battleground state, New Hampshire promises to be one again. Incredibly, Rasmussen has called for a 20 point swing from McCain to Obama from April 30th to June 18th. For now, I'm calling both of these polls outliers and the state too close to call.