Electoral Math 10/6/12

Another day, another new toss-up state. Only 1 new poll was released today (Gravis Marketing) in Colorado. In it, Mitt Romney is ahead 49-46. This represents only the 2nd poll (out of 25) in this election cycle where he has held a lead here. In my projection, Obama still holds a small (0.3%) lead, but any new polling that confirms this result will likely flip the leader.
That’s not to say that it would go into the barely Romney column. It would take an extraordinary result for that to occur.
The map already looks significantly different that it did just 2 days ago. While Mitt Romney hasn’t picked up any EV in my projection just yet, Obama has lost 51EV in only 2 days and I expect that any new polls that come out in the next few days will likely swing even more states toward Romney, despite the good headline number on unemployment that came out yesterday. Wednesday night was a game changer.
As I mentioned on Thursday, state polls were going to be important, but almost just as important would be the Gallup & Rasmussen daily trackers. So far, Gallup’s tracker has moved 3 points, with only 2 of the 7 days worth of polling included in their tracker captured. Rasmussen has moved 4 points with 2 out of 3 days in their tracker poist-debate. The implication would be that the swing could be as wide as 6-10 points. It’s still a little too early to tell if this is true, but a few more days and a few more polls should prove out the hypothesis. If the swing is that wide, it would be enough to shift the election in Romney’s favor.

Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Colorado

11/4: Colorado was a toss-up for a short time after Gov. Palin's nomination, but for the last 6 weeks or so, Sen. Obama has had a steady lead. Obama +8.

Colorado

9/28: 5 new polls this week all show small leads for Sen. Obama. Insider Advantage came oput with a new poll showing Sen. Obama ahead by 9 (which I still think is too high). His lead right now stands at 5 points and could expand a little as the National Journal (Obama +1) and Quinnipiac (Obama +4) are the next to be removed. Polls tat show larger leads than this will likely expand his lead some, possibly enough to move Colorado from barely to leaning Obama.

9/21: 3 new polls, (1 of which may be an outlier), puts Sen. Obama ahead in my projection by about 2.5%. It will likely remain this way for a couple of weeks until the Insider Advantage poll is removed from my projection. Sen. Obama may (I repeat) may have a lead in Colorado, but it's certainly not 10 points.

9/11: Colorado remains a toss-up for now as polls from both Insider Advantage and Public Policy Polling (D) show small leads for Sen. Obama. This may change after the next poll will likely remove the only poll showing Sen. McCain ahead and result in a shift toward Obama.

9/8: 2 conflicting polls were released in Colorado today. Tarrance Group (R) shows Sen. McCain ahead by 2, Rasmussen shows Sen. Obama ahead by 3. The net effect of these polls show Sen. Obama gaining slightly here. Just enough to move Colorado from toss-up to barely on his side. This status is tenuous at best. The next poll to age out is a Suffolk Univeristy poll where he was ahead by 5. Anything less than that will likely move Colorado back to a toss-up.
8/28: Hill Research (R) released a new poll todayshowing Sen. Obama ahead by 3. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead is cut just enough to move Colorado back to a toss-up. One caveat, a new poll with a tie or better for Sen. Obama will change Colorado back to Barely Obama. His lead here is right around 2 points (which is where I have placed my cutoff between toss-up and barely). This is why Colorado keeps waffling back and forth. 8/27: CNN/Time Magazine released polls in 4 battle ground states today. In Colorado, Sen. McCain leads by 1 in this poll. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead is cut to 2%. For now, Colorado remains Barely Obama's but unless the next poll shows Obama ahead by 3 or more, it will likely switch back to a toss-up.

8/25: A new Suffolk University poll was released today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This represents the largest lead he has held since late July in any single poll. It also implies that in the build-up to the convention in Denver and Sen. Biden's pick for VP has result in a shift in his direction. More polling is needed to confirm this, but as a result of this poll, Sen. Obama's lead expands to 2.6%. Colorado shifts from toss-up to barely on his side. 8/23: 2 new polls were released today in Colorado. The first, a Quinnipiac poll taken last week hows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. The second, a Mason-Dixon super poll of the mountain west (which included six states, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming and Nevada) shows Sen. Obama ahead by 3 in Colorado. This poll was also taken last week, in fact some those those polled were taken 11 days ago. As a result of these 2 polls, Sen. Obama's small lead is reversed to a small McCain lead. However, Colorado still remains a toss-up state. 8/17: Rocky Mountain News released a new poll in Colorado showing Sen. McCain ahead by 3. This polls confirms the results of Rasmussen's poll on Thursday and Quinnipiac's poll from last month. Colorado is far too close to call right now. It appears we will have to wait until after the conventions to see if a bounce develops on either side here. 8/14: Rasmussen's new poll in Colorado is a stark departure from theuirt previous poll in July. Sen. McCain now leads by 2 as compared to a 7 point advantage for Sen. Obama in their last poll. As a result of this poll Sen. Obama's lead shrinks from 3.48% to under 1% and Colorado is moved from barely Obama to toss-up. 8/11: A new PPP (D) poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 4. This is identical to their last poll in July. There is almost no change in Colorado as a result and remains barely Obama. 7/25: Frederick has release a new poll in Colorado today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 4. There's been a lot of noise in recent polls and it will be interesting to see what happens in polling here in the weeks to come. For now Colorado is still barely in Obama's column. 7/24: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. McCain ahead in Colorado for the first time since April, when Target Point (R) showed him ahead by 12. As a result, Colorado changes from leaning to barely Obama. 7/22: Rasmussen's new polling Colorado shows an expanding of Sen. Obama's lead. This may be in anticipation of the Democratic National Convention to take place in Denver next month. With this new poll, Colorado moves a shade darker blue and is changed from barely to leaning Obama. 7/14: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll in Colorado today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 4 points. With this poll, is cut slightly and Colorado is changed from leaning Obama to barely Obama. 6/26: Quinnipiac released a poll in Colorado today showing Obama with a 5 point lead. This poll has a very large sample (usually statewide polls are only 500-600 likely voters). Colorado is still very much a toss-up and is likely to remain that way. With the Democratic convention in Denver in August, there is likely to be a swing toward Obama in the build-up before and after the convention. It will be interesting to see if Obama can hold it. 6/20: Colorado promises to be one of the most competitive races in the country and although Obama holds a slight lead and the Democratic convention will be held in Denver, Colorado has been a Republican in recent elections, the state is very much purple.