Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

5 new polls get added to the map today in 5 likely competitive states (NC,VA,NV,MT and WI), two of which change color on my map today.  Of these, North Carolina moves into the toss-up column and 15 EV are taken away from Romney in my projection.  In the popular vote, Obama's lead expands from 5.90% up to 6.03%, after picking up about 180,000 votes in my projection.

First, in North Carolina, Survey USA released a new poll showing President Obama ahead by 4.  Polls have varied pretty widely here over the last several months showing as much as a 14 point swing from Obama +5 to Romney +9.  With this new poll, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection has been cut to just under 1% and North Carolina moves from barely Romney to toss-up.

In Virginia, PPP released a poll showing President Obama ahead by 8. This is in contrast to recent polls by Roanoke College and Rasmussen that showed Mitt Romney ahead here. As a result, Obama's lead expands from 3 to about 5 in my projection.

In Montana, PPP released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by only 5.  This is down from 9 in Rasmussen's poll last month and down from 10 in PPP's last poll here in November.  As a result, Mitt Romney's lead is cut from just over 10 down to about 8 and Montana swings from Safe to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  This is in line with PPP's poll from last month and up a couple of points from their previous poll about 6 weeks ago.  With this poll, Obama's lead basically unchanged.  Obama +8.

Finally, in Wisconsin, Marquette University released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 9.  While there hasn't been a poll here in nearly a month, it appears to be in line with previous results.  There is some evidence of a potentially expanding lead, as Marquette's last poll here in March showed Obama ahead by only 5.  I'm inclined to believe that Wisconsin will end up more competitive than current polls indicate, but for right now it's Obama +13.

Michigan, Nevada, Arizona Primaries & Caucuses

3 polls in 3 different states were released today in states with upcoming primaries and caucuses.

First, in Nevada, in a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, Mitt Romney leads the field by 20 points at 45%, with Newt Gingrich in second at 25%, followed by Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Only 2 days away from the Nevada Caucus, it would appear based on this poll that Mitt Romney is safely ahead and should cruise to victory.  I'd like to see another couple of polls before the caucus, but I don't know that we'll see any more than this, as Nevada does not appear to be competitive. The question in my mind will be does Mitt Romney get a majority of the vote here.  Right now I've got him just short at 49.5%, but that's far too close to say one way or the other.

In Michigan, a new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 38%-23%, with Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 14%.  This is the second poll taken here in the last 10 days and shows a clear shift toward Romney.  Last week, Epic-MRA showed Romney ahead by only 5.  Undoubtedly, this is a result of the momentum shift that occurred during the Florida campaign last week.  In my projection, Mitt Romney's lead is currently at 11 over Gingrich, with Ron Paul just slightly ahead of Rick Santorum for 3rd place.  The primary here is not going to be held until February 28th, so there is still plenty of time for some changes to occur here.  Most likely neither of the current polls will be used as part of my final projection.

In Arizona, a Rasmussen poll was released showing Mitt Romney doubling Newt Gingrich 48%-24%.  Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Like Michigan, Arizona's primary will not be held until February 28th, so we're still several weeks (and momentum shifts) away from the primary here.

Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Nevada

11/4: Nevada appears to be closer than some other states, but the reality is Sen. McCain has not led in a single poll here in October. Obama +7.

Nevada

9/26: Project New West (D) released a new poll showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Sen. McCain's lead is just over 1 point right now and will likely remain a toss-up for the next several weeks. I'd like to saee some more polling in a state as close is Nevada is. The same is true for New Hampshire.

9/22: A new Suffolk University poll in Nevada shows Sen. McCain ahead by 1. His lead right now sits at 1.8% in my projection and remains a toss-up. It is possible that Nevada could change to a barely McCain states if a new poll comes out with Sen. McCain hold a 2 point lead or larger.

9/14: Rasmussen released a new poll showing Sen McCain ahead by 3. Nevada remains a toss-up. Nevada is likely to remain a toss-up until the CNN/Time poll from 2 weeks ago is removed. My gut felling is that Sen. McCain does have a small lead here.

9/11: As I expected in my last post, Nevada is moved to toss-up as a new Insider Advantage poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by only 1. As a result, his lead shrinks to about 1.4%.
8/27: CNN/Time's new poll in Nevada shows Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is the largest lead he's held here since February. I'd like to see some confirmation of this poll, as Mason-Dixon's poll of only 12 days ago (released 3 days ago, see below) showed McCain ahead by 7. For now, Nevada remains Barely McCain's, but it's likely that Nevada will move to toss-up if new polls confirm even a tightening of the race.

8/24: Mason-Dixon's new poll of Nevada shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7. This represents the largest lead he has held here during the campaign and is in direct contrast to Research 2000's poll on Thursday. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of these. Sen. McCain's lead moves to 3 and Nevada is changed from toss-up to barely McCain.

8/21: Research 2000 released a new poll in Nevada today showing Sen. Obama with a 1 point lead. As I mention on my post from 7/17 below, Obama's small lead has disintegrated and Sen. McCain's lead is just below 2. For now, Nevada remains a toss-up, but a poll showing Sen. McCain with a lead of 4 or more will likely move Nevada barely to his side.

8/13: Incredibly, only Rasmussen has polled Nevada voters over the last 3 months. This month's poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Hopefully as we progress through the fall there will be more diverse polling here. For now, Nevada remains too close to call.

7/17: Today's Rasmussen poll in Nevada shows Sen. Obama with his first lead in a poll in Nevada in 5 months. I'm looking for another poll by another service to confirm this result as there has been a surprisingly small amount of polling in a state that is largely considered to be a toss-up. Nevada remains a toss-up in my projection. The next poll to be replaced in my projection is the Research 2000 poll from last November, followed by the Survey USA poll from February. Obama's small lead here will likely disappear as new polls are taken.

6/21: Nevada is going to be another very tight battleground state. Nevada might be worth the gamble for either candidate and could decide the election.