Wisconsin & Maryland Primary

Mitt Romney appears to headed for victories in both Wisconsin and Maryland tomorrow night. 

In Maryland, only two polls were taken prior to tomorrow's primary (PPP & Rasmussen).  In both polls Mitt Romney leads by at least 17 points.  In fact, PPP's poll which was released late last night, has him ahead by 25.  In Maryland, it's going to be a runaway.  Romney +21.

In Wisconsin, where the race is expected to be closer, 6 different polls were conducted in the last week.  All 6 of them show Mitt Romney ahead by margins varying from 5 to 10 points.  Romney +8.

These two contests may finally signal a drawdown in the primary season for the Republicans.  The lead for Romney is simply too large for any of the challengers to have a legitimate chance to overcome.  It also appears that the establishment in the party is tepidly beginning to get behind him.

That said, I take both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich at their word and will not get out of the race.  It's a long way to 1144, but I'm not sure either one of them (or the combination of the 2) can stop Romney from getting there.

Louisiana Results

Yet again, Rick Santorum outperformed his polling numbers significantly.  To no one's surprise, he was the runaway winner in Louisiana last night, but what was surprising was how big his win actually was.  Polls had his lead somewhere between 12 and 14 points, but won the vote by an overwhelming 22.  This shouldn't surprise to many, as Santorum has regularly outperformed polls (he has in nearly every state so far, see MS, AL, TN, OH, MI, etc).  And so, the campaign continues.  On to WI, MD and DC next week.  Wisconsin is the only one of the three likely to be a battleground in any real way.  Even then, Rasmussen released a poll earlier this week showing Mitt Romney ahead there by 13 points, so we'll see thie week if a race materializes.

Louisiana Primary

Rick Santorum appears to be headed for victory in Louisiana, as 3 polls taken this week show him ahead 12-14 points over Mitt Romney.  The mystery to me will be how well Newt Gingrich performs.  If he can out perform his polling numbers, he would likely be taking votes away from Rick Santorum.  If so, the race could get a little closer than I've called it, but I don't believe he is truly at risk of losing here.  Santorum +13.6% and Saturday night is an early night.

Illinois Results

Overall, I'm very please with my projection when compared to last night's result in Illinois.  The big surprise here was the total lack of support for Newt Gingrich.  No poll in the 2 weeks leading into last night's primary had Gingrich's support below 12%.  To come in below 8% is astonishing to me. 

I picked Mitt Romney's margin of victory to within 0.68%.  I'll take it considering there were only 5 polls in the two weeks leading into the primary.  In most of the contested states in the general election, there can be as many as 5 (if not more) per day!

Illinois Primary - Final Projection

2 new polls released today showing Mitt Romney pulling away.  His lead in my projection moves to slightly more than 11 points over Rick Santorum, from 7 prior to these polls.  It would appear that all of the undecideds a week ago are breaking for Romney as all of the other candidates have stayed in a very tight range in the last few polls, only the number of undecideds have gone down significantly.  While Rick Santorum has consistently outpaced his polling numbers leading to primaries, 14 or 15 points might be too much to ask.  I look for a pretty significant win for Romney in Illinois tomorrow.

Illinois Primary

Three days from the Illinois Primary and Mitt Romney holds about a 7 point lead over Rick Santorum.  Based on the way the last several states have turned out, I am very skeptical that he is actually ahead by that much.  Last week, Rick Santorum had significant deficits in both Alabama & Mississippi in polling, yet still managed to win both states.  Additionally, Rasmussen has been a homer for Mitt Romney in most states, generally overstating his actual results in many states so far, particularly states with socially conservative bases.  There could be a few reasons for this. 

One is that the enthusiasm gap between Mitt Romney's supporters and Rick Santorum's supporters creates essentially an overpolling for Romney and an underpolling on Santorum's side.  It could also be that the likely voter models that are used are insufficiently capturing the actual electorate vs. perceived voters.  Either way, the math in many cases has not added up during this primary season.

Illinois is an interesting state, in that the electorate is very different dependin where you are in the state.  In and around the Chicagoland area, Republicans tend to be fiscally conservative and socially moderate, while southern Illinois is much more socially conserative with a large evangelical Christian base in the party.

Over the next few days, I would expet a couple more polls as the major media markets of Chicago & St. Louis will likely do some polling this weekend.  I would also expect some of the other national pollsters to take a shot here.

Alabama Primary

Alabama is going to be very tight tomorrow.  Newt Gingrich holds a lead of about .13% in my projection which makes it far too close to call, but I'm going to stick to it.  The math is the math.  Any of the top 3 has a legitimate change to win here, especially since both PPP and Rasmussen show the top 3 candidates within 2 points of each other.  ARG, Capital Survey & Alabama State all show slightly larger gaps between the Gingrich, Romney and Santorum, but it's truly anybody's race here.

Mississippi Primary

Mitt Romney may appear to have a relatively solid lead in Mississippi, but I'm inclined to think that this race is probably closer than my projection.  Rasmussen's poll from late last week showing Mitt Romney ahead by 8 is overpowering the lastest two from from PPP & ARG that show the race a tie.  That said, it may be that ARG is holding doen Rick Santorum's number as well, although it would appear that he appears to be in a solid third place and doesn't look to be threatening to win here.  Final projection: Romney +4.

Super Tuesday Results

Overall, my projections in the 3 big states last night held up pretty well.  That said, I did pick the wrong winner in Ohio.  It was a tough race to call.  In the week leading up to the primary, polls ranged from Romney +4 to Santorum +6.  Even with that, the difference between what I had projected the gap to be and the actual results was only about 1.65%.  In Ohio, Mitt Romney out performed my projected by just shy of 3.5% and Rick Santorum by just under 2%.  My best overall projection was in Georgia, which is not all that suprising considering that the polling throught the last week of the campaign were pretty consistent. There was a bit more noise in Ohio & Tennessee to sort out.  While certainly in the margin of error, We Ask America actually had Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by 1, largely driving the difference between my projection and the actual result.

I'm pretty pleased with how I did last night although, I wish I could have my Ohio projection back.

Ohio Primary

Ohio will be ground zero tomorrow night.  6 new polls released today, all within the margin of error.  My final projection has Rick Santorum winning by a fraction, but the race is truly too close to call.  I would not at all be surprised if Mitt Romney wins here.  In combination with a win in Tennessee and a strong second in Georgia, it just might be the beginning of the end for Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.  If Gingrich were to win both Georgia & Tennessee (see below), it might lead to (wait for it) a third resurgence of Newt Gingrich.

Tennessee Primary

2 new polls in Tennessee today with a split decision. PPP's new poll has Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney by 5, but We Ask America puts him behind Romney by 1.  That's not the story.  The story is the final day surge of Newt Gingrich.  Just yesterday, 2 polls had him in the high teens to low 20s, but today's polls show him as a true contender.  My final projection has Rick Santorum winning by 3, but don't be surprised if either Mitt Romney or the suddenly resurgent Newt Gingrich pulls this one out.

Georgia Primary

A bunch of new polls today in several of the primary state tomorrow and I'm going to start in Georgia, where 5 new polls were released today all of which show Newt Gingrich with substantial leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.  The battle here is going to be for second place where Mitt Romney appears to hold about a 2 point lead on Santorum.  That lead however is tenuous as only Rasmussen is showing any kind of separation between Romney and Santorum.  A third place finish here for the former Pennsylvania Senator would hurt quite a bit if coupled with losses in both Ohio and Tennessee where he was holding substantial leads prior to last week's Arizona & Michigan primaries.

Georgia Primary

Mason-Dixon released a new poll in Georgia this morning showing Newt Gingrich ahead of Mitt Romney by 14 points.  This is in line with both the Rasmussen and Landmark/Rosetta Stone polls that have been released in the last couple of days.  The big thing here is that the Romney bounce continues, as the last 3 polls show him running in 2nd place, and I now have him about 5 points ahead of Rick Santorum.  As I mentioned earlier, if Gingrich were to win here, and Romney were to win both Ohio and Tennessee on Tuesday, it would be a very bitter pill for Rick Santorum to take.

Tennessee Primary

Rasmussen released a new poll in Tennessee this morning showing Rick Santorum ahead by only 4, down from nearly 20 points 2 weeks ago.  Tennessee appears very much like it could be up for grabs.
The combination of a Newt Gingrich win in Georgia and losses for Rick Santorum after having big leads in Ohio and Tennessee could potentially create yet another shift in the challenger to Mitt Romney.

Ohio Primary

NBC News/Marist College released a new poll this morning in Ohio showing Rick Santorum's lead there down to 2 points over Mitt Romney.  In my projection, Santorum's lead drops to just under 4 points.  I would expect that Rasmussen and possibly PPP are likely to put out new polls today or tomorrow prior to Tuesday's primary.  Game on in Ohio.  This one's going to be close.

Georgia Primary

Newt Gingrich continues to hold a significant lead in Georgia after a new Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll was released this morning.  More interestingly, Mitt Romney has taken over 2nd place from Rick Santorum for the second consecutive poll.  This moves Romney into runner-up in my projection and lends to the overall thinking that Romney's wins in Arizona & Michigan are having a profound effect on the race overall.  With Super Tuesday only 3 days away, it looks like Gingrich might run away with this one, but the battle here is between Romney & Santorum.

Ohio Primary

Quinnipiac & Rasmussen released new polls in Ohio this morning showing the race here very tight, as I expected would be the case a couple of days ago.  I'm still showing Santorum ahead by 6 in my projection, but that gap is likely to close in the next couple of days as more polls flood in from Ohio.

Tennessee Primary

Two polls so far in Tennessee, (one of which is admittedly an extremely small sample) both showing Rick Santorum with substantial leads.  5 days from the primary it would appear Snatorum might run away with Tennessee, but then both of these polls were taken before Michigan & Arizona.

Vermont Primary

Castleton State College released a poll in Vermont today showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7 points over Rick Santorum.  This is the only poll taken here since July.  That said, I'm not sure this poll is much more accurate.  According to Nate Silver at the New York Times, poll that have been taken 6-10 days prior to a priamry so far this season missed the actual margin by 12 points.  It just goes to show how wild this primary season has been.  Because of this, I'm actually changing my methodology a bit to try to limit polls used in my final calculation to the last week before the vote actually occurs.  I'm still going to be looking for multiple polls to use, so in that case, if there is not enough polling data (as will likely be the case in Vermont), I will still use older data.

Ohio Primary

In Ohio, Rick Santorum looks to be ahead by about 13 points over Mitt Romney.  Ohio appears to be ground zero for the two front runners this week.  Both Romney & Santorum spent the day here today, and after last night's results and the relentless campaigning that I expect will occur this week here, I'm inclined to disregard where we currently are in Ohio.  It's very likely to be different in the next few days.