Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama.  With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%. 

First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days.  With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1.  Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2.  This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago.  As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5.  Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.

In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie.  With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day.  Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months.  Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.

Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection.  Obama +3.

It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended.  That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race.  As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker. 

It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections.  Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another.  Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads.  In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.

Electoral Math

5 new polls get added to the map today in 5 likely competitive states (NC,VA,NV,MT and WI), two of which change color on my map today.  Of these, North Carolina moves into the toss-up column and 15 EV are taken away from Romney in my projection.  In the popular vote, Obama's lead expands from 5.90% up to 6.03%, after picking up about 180,000 votes in my projection.

First, in North Carolina, Survey USA released a new poll showing President Obama ahead by 4.  Polls have varied pretty widely here over the last several months showing as much as a 14 point swing from Obama +5 to Romney +9.  With this new poll, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection has been cut to just under 1% and North Carolina moves from barely Romney to toss-up.

In Virginia, PPP released a poll showing President Obama ahead by 8. This is in contrast to recent polls by Roanoke College and Rasmussen that showed Mitt Romney ahead here. As a result, Obama's lead expands from 3 to about 5 in my projection.

In Montana, PPP released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by only 5.  This is down from 9 in Rasmussen's poll last month and down from 10 in PPP's last poll here in November.  As a result, Mitt Romney's lead is cut from just over 10 down to about 8 and Montana swings from Safe to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  This is in line with PPP's poll from last month and up a couple of points from their previous poll about 6 weeks ago.  With this poll, Obama's lead basically unchanged.  Obama +8.

Finally, in Wisconsin, Marquette University released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 9.  While there hasn't been a poll here in nearly a month, it appears to be in line with previous results.  There is some evidence of a potentially expanding lead, as Marquette's last poll here in March showed Obama ahead by only 5.  I'm inclined to believe that Wisconsin will end up more competitive than current polls indicate, but for right now it's Obama +13.

Electoral Math

5 new polls get incorporated into my map today resulting in 3 color changes.  First, in New Hampshire WMUR/UNH released a poll Tuesday that shows Pres. Obama ahead here by 9.  This is in contrast to a Dartmouth poll taken a few weeks ago that showed Gov. Romney ahead by 2.  It does however fall in line with their previous polss (which admittedly is 3 months old when Obama was ahead by 10.  As a result of this poll, Pres. Obama's lead which I said in my previous polls was a very tenuous 7 points, down under the 6 point threshhold and moves New Hampshire from Leaning to Barely Obama.

In Texas, a new PPP poll was released showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7.  There have only been 2 polls in Texas this season so far, both of which were taken by PPP and had nearly identical results.  Texas remains unchanged as a result of this poll.  Romney +7.5.

In Arizona, 2 new polls were released showing the state a statistical dead heat.  Behavior Research Center released a poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 2, 42-40.  Arizona State head the exact opposite result with Romney ahead 42-40.  As a result of these polls, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection drops to about 5 points and is currently being heavily influenced by Rasmussen's poll taken last month where Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 11.  Based on all the surrounding polls, this may be a bit of an outlier, but I'm still inclined to believe that Arizona is not quite as close as some of these polls might indicate.  Still, Arizona is moved from leaning to barely Romney.

In New Mexico, PPP released a new poll showing Pres. Obama by 14.  New Mexico remains basically unchanged as their previous poll taken in December showed the gap at 15.  New Mexico remains safely on Obama's side.  Obama +16.

Finally in Virginia, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This is in stark contrast to a poll they took there just a month ago when Barack Obama was ahead by 9.  As a result of this poll, Virginia moves from leaning to barely Obama.  I would not at all be surprised if Virginia moves in to the toss-up with the nexy poll released there if these results are confirmed.  For now, I've got Obama +3, but a very tenuous 3 at that.

Virginia

11/4: There has been some tightening in the polls here in the last week or so, but not once has Sen. McCain had a lead in a poll here since the beginning of October. Obama by 6.

Virginia

9/26: 11 new polls have been released since my last update in Virginia. Sen. Obama has taken the lead in my projection as 3 of the last 4 polls have shown him in the lead. In fact, his lead is likely to expand as the oldest polls here show the largest leads for Sen. McCain. If both the National Journal and Chris Newport polls are theoretically removed from my calculation, Sen. Obama would be ahead by more than 2.

9/10: CNN/Time's new poll of Virginia shows Sen. McCain ahead by 4. As a result, his lead here is up to nearly 2 points. Not quite enough for me to change Virginia's toss-up status yet, but it's getting very close. Once the PPP poll from August is removed from the calculation it will likely switch.

9/8: 2 new polls were released today in Virginia, both showing Sen. McCain with a 2 point lead. There is evidence of a small bounce here for Sen. McCain as he picks up 3 points since the last Rasmussen poll and 1 since the last Survey USA poll. While Virginia remains too close to call, it is worth noting that Sen. McCain has taken a small lead here again.
8/24: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new survey in Virginia today sowing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. This matches their poll from last month. The tie is broken in Virginia with Sen. Obama taking a small lead. Virginia remains a toss-up.

8/13: 2 new polls were released in Virginia by Rasmussen and Insider Advantage. Rasmussen's shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1, while Insider Advantage's is a tie. As a result of these two polls, Virginia is a dead-footed tie.

8/11: Survey USA released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1 in Virginia. This is the first poll where he has held a lead since Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee. His lead expands from .32% to 1.48% with this new poll. As I indicated in my previous posts in Virginia (see below) once the VCU poll is removed from my projection, Sen. Obama will get about a 1.5% swing in his favor. In fact, if it were to be removed hypothetically, my projection would be a dead heat. For now, (and likely until November) Virginia remains too close to call. 7/23: Today's result in the Public Policy Polling (D) survey confirm the previous results. It appears now that the VCU poll from May is an outlier, but remains in the calculation for now. While regardless of whether this poll is included or not, Virginia is still too close to call, but without it, Sen. Obama would have a small lead. Sen. McCain remains ahead here, but only by .34%.

7/18: Today's Rasmussen poll in Virginia that shows a tie, ironically breaks the tie in my projection. While Virginia is still far too close to call, the point Obama lost since the last Rasmussen poll in June, gives John McCain the slimmest of margins. Don't be fooled. The next poll to be aged out will be the VCU poll (unless the next poll comes from Survey USA or Rasmussen). Once the VCU poll is removed, there will be a fairly significant (about 1.5 points) swing in favor of Sen. Obama.

6/29: A new Survey USA poll has been released in Virginia showing Barack Obama with a 2 point lead. This result is consistent with both of the other polls run this month, but the race in Virginia remains too close to call.

6/20: Virginia may be one of the most important battleground states in 2008. Both McCain and Obama are counting on Virginia in order to reach 270 electoral votes. Right now, Virginia is a statisical dead heat and will likely remain that way throughout the next 5 months.