Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama.  With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%. 

First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days.  With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1.  Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2.  This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago.  As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5.  Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.

In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie.  With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day.  Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months.  Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.

Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection.  Obama +3.

It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended.  That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race.  As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker. 

It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections.  Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another.  Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads.  In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.

Electoral Math

Today, Rasmussen released a new poll in Florida showing Mitt Romney ahead 46-45 over Barack Obama.  This is the first poll here in 3 months where the former Massachusetts Governor was shown in the lead.  That said, over the last 4 polls have shown a slow and steadt decline in Obama's lead.  In Rasmussen's poll 6 weeks ago, Obama was ahead by 3.  As a result, his lead is cut from 5 down to about 3.6%.  Florida remains barely in his column, but it would not be at all surprising if Florida moves back into the toss-up column before long.  Romney also moves closer in the total popular vote by about 136,000 in my projection and cuts into the President's overall lead from 6.00% to 5.90%.

Florida

PPP released a new poll in Florida today showing Barack Obama ahead by 5 in Florida.  This is largely in line with the most recent polls, and slightly expands his lead in my proection from 2 to 3 points.  That said, my current projection still includes the Miami Herald/Mason-Dixon poll taken during the Florida primary season that showed Mitt Romney ahead by 4.  Florida remains barely in Obama's column, but clearly Florida will be up for grabs in the fall.

Electoral Math

Today, polls in several swing states (FL, PA, & OH specifically) were released in the theoretical matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney all of which result in color changes on my map.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by only 3.  Part of this may be due to the approaching Pennsylvania primary, but it's down from a 6 point lead Quinnipiac released 2 weeks ago.  As a result, Obama's overall lead in the state drops from about 7 points to just under 6 and moves Pennsylvania from leaning to barely Obama.

In Ohio, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac both released polls today showing Obama ahead by 6 (Quinnipiac) to 8 (Rasmussen) points.  This is largely in line with most of the polling here in recent months with the exception of a possible outlier released by Fox News released in the run-up to the Ohio Primary last month.  With these new polls, Obama's lead increases over to just over 6 points from about 4 and moves Ohio from barely to leaning Obama.

But the big news tonight is in Florida.  Here, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  This new poll ages out some of the polls that were taken during the week leading into the primary there where Romney was shown with small leads in a couple of polls and moves Florida from a toss-up to barely Obama.

Based on the new map, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney now 321-206 with only 10 electoral votes in my toss-up column.  That said, there's a long way to go and anything can happen, but as it stands right now, Mitt Romney would have to fight and win in all of the states that are currently showing leads of up to 6 points for (FL,PA,CO and NV) Obama in order to win the election.

Florida Results

With 100% of precincts reporting:

Mitt Romney     46.42% 775,014
Newt Gingrich  31.93% 533,117
Rick Santorum  13.34% 222,799
Ron Paul             7.01% 117,104
Others                 1.29%   21,613

My projection from last night:

Romney: 44.02%
Gingrich: 32.15%
Santorum: 13.19%
Paul: 9.64%

It looks like I'm going to underestimate Mitt's resul by 2% and overestimate Ron Paul by about 2%.  All in all pretty close.

Since individual polls do not allocate undecided votes while I do, it is more appropriate to look at margins than the % totals overall.

Looking at the latest polls by each pollster that fell within the last week, a fair comparison can be made.

Props to Quinnipiac, NBC News/Marist & Survey USA for predicting within 1% of the actual result (14.46%).
Overall by margin difference:
Suffolk University: Romney +20
We Ask America: Romney +19
Rasmussen: Romney +16
Survey USA: Romney +15
NBC News/Marist: Romney +15
Quinnipiac: Romney +14
Mason-Dixon: Romney +11
American Research Group: Romney +11
War Room Logistics: Romney +10
Voter Survey Service: Romney +9
Ipsos/Reuters: Romney +8
Public Policy Polling: Romney +7
Monmouth: Romney +7
Insider Advantage: Romney +5
CNN/Time: Romney +2
Florida Chamber of Commerce: Tie

Looking at this, 6 pollsters overestimated Romney's win and 10 underestimated it, although considering allocation of undecideds probably would have pushed Mason-Dixon & ARG to the right margin.
Another interesting point is that 12 of the 16 polls overestimated Ron Paul, this is especially damning when considering that undecideds typically range from 6-10% in a given poll, therefore typically pollsters should underestimate an individual candidate.  A clear example is that only 1 poll had Mitt Romney over 46% (his actual result), while the other 15 pollsters showed him no higher than 44%.

Florida Republican Primary

 6 new polls today, all showing Mitt Romney ahead by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.  Unless any new polls comes out late tonight, my projection is done.  Overall in my projection, Romney's lead moves again today from 9 to 12 points.  I now consider Mitt Romney safely ahead in Florida.

Romney: 44.02%
Gingrich: 32.15%
Santorum: 13.19%
Paul: 9.64%

Florida Republican Primary

2 new updates as NBC News/Marist and Rasmussen release polls showing Mitt Romney ahead by 15 and 16 points respectively.  It looks like the Florida Primary is becoming a runaway victory for the former Massachusetts Governor.  In my projections, Mitt Romney now leads by more than 9 points, vs. 6 points just yesterday.  I would not be surprised to see Mr. Romney win on Tuesday by a margin considerably larger than my projection based on the way polling has gone this week.

I'll keep looking for new data as it becomes available and may post again later today if there are any new polls released.

2 new polls were released overnight showing Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by 8-11 points.  It would appear the gap between the two continues to widen slightly, since no poll has shown Mitt Romney in the lead by double digits since before the South Carolina Primary last weekend.  In my projection, Romney now has just shy of a 7.5% lead two days out from the primary.  I'll keep looking for polls today, but I don't expect there will be many, if at all.

Florida Republican Primary

A new Ipsos/Reuters poll shows Mitt Romney ahead 41-33 over Newt Gingrich.  This is the 7th consecutive poll where Romney leads by at least 7 points.  The overall projection is basically unchanged with Gov. Romney ahead of Speaker Gingrich by 6.34%, enough for me to call Florida leaning Romney as has been the trend for the last 2 days.  There is only one poll currently used in my calculation by Public Policy Polling that has Newt Gingrich ahead.  Even that poll does not fully count in my projection as the are a Democratic organization.  I expect the rest of the weekend will be quiet from a polling perspective and a slew of polls coming out on Monday prior to Tuesday's primary.

Florida Republican Primary

2 new polls today by Quinnipiac and the Voter Survey Service, both showing Mitt Romney ahead in Florida by 9 points.  There are now 6 consecutive polls that show the former Massachusetts Governor ahead of Newt Gingrich by at least 7 points.  That said, the previous Voter Survey Service poll showed Gov. Romney ahead by 26, albeit prior to the South Carolina Primary.  The previous Quinnipiac poll taken earlier this week, had Gov. Romney ahead by only 2, 36-34.  As a result of these new polls replacing their predecessors, Gov. Romney's lead shrinks slightly in my projection from 7 to 6 points.  Clearly, Florida is leaning toward Gov. Romney at the moment.  With only 4 days before the primary, it would appear we'll need another game changer for Speaker Gingrich to catch Mitt Romney.

Florida Republican Primary

5 days until the Florida Primary and 3 new polls today.  In each of these, Mitt Romney is shown ahead 7-8 points.  A new Rasmussen poll had the former Massachusetts Governor ahead 39-31 over Newt Gingrich.  Just 3 days ago Rasmussen showed Speaker Gingrich of Mitt Romnery 41-32, a 17-point change.  Yet again, it appears the leader in the Republican race has changed substantially.

As a result of today's polls, Mitt Romney expands his lead from 2 to 7 points in my projection, enough for me to move it from barely to leaning Romney.

Florida Republican Primary

5 new polls were released today.  Of them, Gov. Romney had small leads in 4 of them and the other showed a tie between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.  It appears based on today's polls that Speaker Gingrich may have peaked in this race and is starting to swing back in the former Massachusetts Governor's direction. That said, Romney's lead in my projection continues to slip, now with a lead of only 2.58%.  In fact, excluding the Voter Survey Service poll which will age out on Friday, Newt Gingrich would be ahead by about 1%.  On the opposite side, yesterday, excluding the polls that were released prior to the South Carolina Primary on Saturday, the former Speaker's lead was more than 3%, so yet again there appears to a shift in the break neck pace of the Republican Primary campaign.

Florida Republican Primary

We Ask America released a new poll last night showing Mitt Romney ahead by 2 points over Newt Gingrich.  This flies in the face of the previous 3 polls releasen in the last two days showing Speaker Gingrich ahead of Gov. Romney by 5 to 9 points.  The Speaker closes the gap by about one more point to just under 9%.  Keep in mind, without the polling prior to South Carolina (which is what my final projection will incluse on Tuesday) that Speaker Gingrich would be ahead by about 6 points in my projection right now.  The coming week will let us now, but I fully expect based on the dynamic of the race right now, that tonight's poll might be an outlier.

Florida Republican Primary

Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling released new polls today showing Newt Gingrich ahead by 5-9 points.  It looks like there may be another dramatic turnaround coming like he had in South Carolina.  Removing the polls taken last week would put Gingrich ahead by 8 in my projection.  All of the polls that were completed prior to the South Carolina primary will age out of my final calculation.  The seismic shift is on in Florida.  Tonight's debate will be very important for both Romney and Gingrich.  Mitt Romney has to stop the bleeding, and Newt Gingrich needs to not slip.  It's like Mitt will be on the attack tonight and the debate could get ugly early.

Florida Republican Primary

As of this morning, Mitt Romney holds a 22 point lead on Newt Gingrich.  Since all of these polls were taken prior to last night's South Carolina primary result and prior to the late surge that Gingrich had in South Carolina.  I would expect in the next couple of days there's going to be a slew of new polling to sort out where we are entering the Florida campaign.

Florida

11/4: Florida has been very close throughout the campaign. The Sunshine State appears to be leaning toward Sen. Obama, however, as only Rasmussen has Sen. McCain ahead in its final poll of the season. No recount necessary. Obama +3.

Florida

9/26: Florida changes from barely McCain to toss-up. Polls have tightened over the last several weeks. Sen. McCain is still clearly ahead as only 1 poll in September shows Sen. Obama ahead.
9/22: There have been 8 new polls here since my last update. Little has changed here although Sen. McCain's lead here has been cut to under 4 since my last update and will likely fall further over the next few polls. Since Sen. McCain's largest leads in recent polling are about to be aged out, they will have to be replaced with similar leads in order to keep the margin where it is. At this point, it does not seem likely over the next week or so that Sen. Obama will be ablte to return Florida to the toss-up category.
9/11: 2 new polls were released today in Florida showing Sen. McCain with leads of 7 & 8 respectively. As a result, his lead in my projection jumps to about 5 points and Florida is moved from toss-up to barely McCain.

9/9: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 5. There's been a lot of polling noise here in recent polls. For now, Florida remains a toss-up but polling suggests that Sen. McCain has a small lead here.
9/2: Rasmussen's new poll in Florida shows a dead heat between Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. In their last poll 3 weeks ago, Sen. McCain's lead was 3. As a result, his lead drops under 2 points in my projection and Florida is moved from barely McCain to toss-up.

8/27: 2 new polls today in Florida. Strategic Vision's (R) poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7, while Mason-Dixon released a poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 1 in Florida. This is the first poll where he has held a lead here in a month. Somewhere in between is likely where Florida actually is right now. Florida remains barely on McCain's side.

8/26: 2 new polls were released in Florida todayshowing Sen. McCain with 3-4 point leads. As a result, he lead expands fractionally to 3%. Florida remains barely on McCain's side.

8/21: American Research Group released a new poll in Florida today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead shrink from 4.5 to 2.7%. Sen. Obama gains 165,000 votes in Florida today, but remains barely in McCain's column.

8/19: Rasmussen released a new poll today in Florida showing Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Their poll here last month had Sen. Obama ahead by 1. Sen. McCain's lead expands from 2.7% to 4.5%. Florida remains barely on his side.

8/12: Insider Advantage released a new poll in Florida today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 4. This poll replaces the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll from 2 weeks ago, where he was ahead by 5. As a result, Sen. Obama makes a small gain but Florida remains barely McCain for now. 8/6: Public Policy Polling's (D) new survey shows Sen. McCain ahead by 3. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands from 2 to 3 points and picks up another 101,000 votes here. As a result of this poll, Florida is moved back into the barely McCain column.

8/4: 2 new polls were released today by Survey USA and the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Survey USA's poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 6, while the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows him ahead by 5. With these new polls Sen. McCain regains the lead by 1.82%, but is still slightly to close to call.

7/31: A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Sen. Obama ahead by 1 confirming Rasmussen's result last week. Florida remains too close to call, but it should be noted that in my projection, Sen. Obama has taken a small lead here.

7/23: What the polls giveth, the polls taketh away. Today's Rasmussen poll in Florida, shows Barack Obama with a 1 point lead. This is a stark contrast to their polling in June, where John McCain was ahead by 7. While McCain still has a small lead, Florida goes back to being too close to call 24 hours after it went into McCain's column.

7/22: American Research Group's new poll in Florida gives Sen. McCain with a 2 point lead. This is in sharp contrast to their previous poll 5 weeks ago, when Sen. Obama was shown ahead by 5. As I mentioned in my previous post on Florida (see below), either the pro-McCain polls or the pro-Obama polls recently have been outliers. It appears now that McCain is beginning to emerge with an advantage and his lead has now expanded to over 4%. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up 27 electoral votes as Florida goes barely into his column.

7/2: A new poll has been released by Strategic Vision (R) showing Sen. McCain with an 8 point lead. It appears now, as in most battleground states, there will be enough information in Florida to choke a horse, and wider results than that horse can possibly stomach. Today's poll leaves Florida still too close to call, but has swung from a 1 point deficit for McCain to nearly a 2 point lead. The reality is likely somewhere close to that, but it's hard to tell. Take your pick. Either Strategic Vision & Rasmussen are outliers or PPP, ARG and Quinnipiac are. Your choice.

7/1: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll in Florida showing Barack Obama with a 2 point lead. This is in direct conflict with the Rasmussen poll from yesterday. There is something to be said about the fact that the poll was sponsored by a Democratic organization and as such tends to err slightly on the side of Democrats (although this is not always the case). There is much that can be said to support the findings of this poll as well. Both Quinnipiac and the American Research Group agree with these findings and only Rasmussen is showing a comfortable lead for John McCain. For now (and likely for quite a while) Florida is too close to call.

6/30: A new Rasmussen poll has been released showing John McCain with a 7 point lead. This is little changed from the previous 2 polls by Rasmussen. I will be very curious to see the next round of polls in Florida, as the bounce reported by ARG and Quinnipiac is not materializing in Rasmussen polls. Florida is still far to close to call, although I suspect as nw polling data becomes available Florida will begin shifting in favor John McCain.

6/20: Florida, Florida, Florida. McCain has seen an early lead evaporate since Obama became the candidate. We'll see if that continues. For now Florida is too early to call, although its hard to imagine an electoral map that McCain wins without Florida in the red.