Electoral Math 10/28/12

Electoral Math Projection:
Obama 277, Romney 206
No Toss-ups:
Obama 281, Romney 257
Minnesota changes from leaning to barely Obama today after a Mason-Dixon poll was released this morning showing Pres. Obama ahead by only 3. This is down from an 8 point Obama lead in the same poll 6 weeks ago. Overall my projection drops to a 5.5% advantage.
Based on my belief that we will not get enough post-debate polling to fully wash out older polls, I’ve looked at attempting to add the effect of the change in national polls to older data. This allows me to project out the state of the race in states today where polling data is sparse. It’s not a particularly elegant method to project the change in the electorate, but it’s as effective a method as I can quantify.
I haven’t yet updated the map to reflect this projection, however based on this effect, my popular vote projection stands at Obama 49.83%, Romney 48.73%. Even with this accounted for it still diverges fairly significantly from national polling data. What’s the difference? Primarily, it’s an issue of projection. Most national polls are limited (even daily trackers) to a couple thousand likely voters. Those voters are then extrapolated across the country using demographic information. While state polls do the same thing, there is less margin of error at the state level.
I tend to think that this projection is closer to the actual state of the electorate than my state poll only projection. We’ll find out soon enough.

Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

Rasmussen released a new poll today in Montana showing Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by 7 points.  This is largely in line with previous polls, although down a couple points from Rasmussen previous poll a month ago.  The new poll cuts into Mitt Romney's lead from about 7 1/2 down to about 6 1/2 points.  Montana remains Leaning Romney.  The popular vote remains nearly unchanged, although Obama does pick up about 9,000 votes in my projection.

Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Michigan & Minnesota Primary

A couple of polls were also released this week in states holding primaries in February.  Epic-MRA and the Detroit Free Press released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 5 points in Michigan.  The Michigan primary is set to be held on February 28th, but offers a pretty good look at where the state stands a month out.

In Minnesota, Public Policy Polling released a poll this week showing Newt Gingrich ahead by 18 points on Mitt Romney.  Mitt Romney is currently being closely challenged by Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 13%.  Minnesota's primary is only 9 days away and yet, so far, this is the only poll that is not so old that it's rendered meaningless. 

3 other states, Nevada, Maine (February 4th)and Colorado (February 7th) are all scheduled to hold primaries within the next 10 days and yet, there has been no statewide polling in any of these states recently.  I would expect that once we get past Florida on Tuesday, a whole slew of new polls will begin coming out in the next few days.

Minnesota

Minnesota

9/28: A new Quinnpiac poll was released showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. This is in line with mst other recent polling. Sen. Obama's lead remains at about 3 points, but is most based on the Rasmussen poll from last week. No polling has been donw here in the ast few days and I'm curious to see what effect the financial crisis and the debate had in Minnesota.

9/22: A lot has changed in Minnesota since the Republican Convention. 5 new polls have been released, 4 of them show the race a statistical dead heat while Rasmussen appears to be an outlier with an 8 point Obama lead. Minnesota has moved from Leaning Obama to Barely Obama to Toss-Up to Barely Obama again in the last several weeks.

9/3: A new CNN/Time poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Obama ahead by 12 among registered voters. As a result, his lead expands to 7 points in my projection and Minnesota is moved from Barely to Leaning Obama.
8/21: Minnesota Public Radio released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama regaining the substantial lead he held in July. Based on the fact that this was was running concurrently with 2 other polls with not nearly as wide a spread, it is likely that this poll is an outlier. Regardless, Sen. Obama's lead expands to nearly 6 here.
8/18: Survey USA released a new poll in Minnesota showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Ironically, Sen. Obama gains just a little with this poll as today's poll removes their poll from June from my equation when he only led by 1. Minnesota remains barely Obama.

8/14: Rasmussen's new poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 4. This confirms the results of Quinnipiac's poll 3 weeks ago. Sen. Obama's lead shrinks from 6 to 3 and as a result, Minnesota is moved from leaning to barely Obama. This marks the 2nd consecutive poll that resulted in a shift in Sen. McCain's direction in Minnesota.

7/24: Today's Quinnipiac poll is in direct conflict with the Rasmussen poll from yesterday and with their own poll from last month. Sen. Obama's lead drops here from 12 to 6 and Minnesota is changed from safe to leaning Obama.

7/23: Today's Rasmussen poll in Minnesota show Sen. Obama comfortably ahead by 13. Based on the new polling his lead shrinks slightly to just under 12 points, but Minnesota remains safely on Obama's side.

7/14: Minnesota has enjoyed the weirdest polling of all 50 states. Today's Rasmussen confirms their findings last month as well as Quinnipiac and Star Tribune before. It appears that the Survey USA polls from May & June appear to be outliers at this point. Sen. Obama's lead in my projection jumps from 11 to 13 points.

6/26: A new Quinnipiac poll has been releaed confirming the large leads shown by Rasmussen and Star Tribune. As a result, Minnesota moves from a leaning Obama to safe Obama state. This will probably change right around the time of the Republican convention which is to be held in St. Paul.
6/20: Conflicting data appears to be the rule here. There is a lot of noise in recent polls and will work itself out over time. It's difficult to draw any conclusions at this point, but for now I'm calling it leaning Obama.