Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Michigan & Arizona Results

In both states, polls generally underestimated Mitt Romney's performance and over estimated Rick Santorum's. 

Also worth noting, is that I picked the wrony winner in Michigan.  Ultimately, there were two factors that were the root cause.

First, Public Policy Polling released 2 (relatively) small sample size polls in the last two days with diverging results.  On Sunday night, PPP showed Mitt Romney ahead by 2.  Monday night, PPP released another poll showing Rick Santorum ahead by 5.  Because I only allow one poll from any pollster in my results, Monday night's release was included.

Second, as part of my methodology, I include all polls in the last two weeks.  Two weeks ago, Rick Santorum was generally leading in Michigan polls. As polling services scrambled to make final prediction in the closing days of the campaign, most og the older polls were excluded.  However, there were a couple of notable exceptions.  ARG last released a poll on 2/22 and the Detroit Free Press last released a poll on 2/21.  Both showed Santorum ahead by 3 or 4 points.  NBC News/Marist also had a poll included in that was taken on 2/20, but had Mitt Romney ahead by 2.

By excluding last week's polls and normalizing the PPP problem and my projection would have MItt ROmney ahead by about 1.5%.  Lesson learned.

Michigan & Arizona Primay

Michigan:
Rick Santorum 39.05%
Mitt Romney 38.51%
Ron Paul 12.17%
Newt Gingrich 9.26%

Arizona:
Mitt Romney 42.09%
Rick Santorum 30.56%
Newt Gingrich 17.06%
Ron Paul 9.28%

Michigan & Arizona Primary

2 new polls were released in Michigan today showing Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum.  In the new Rasmussen poll Mitt Romney is ahead by 6 vs. a 4 point deficit just 3 days earlier.  A similar if less dramatic story in Mitchell/Rosetta Stone's new poll, where Mitt Romney is ahead by 3, vs. a 2 point deficit between Monday and Thursday.  That said, I still just barely have Rick Santorum in the lead in my projection, although it is clear to me that Romney has taken the lead here.  The reason is that the Inside MI Politics/MRG poll is still counted in my calculation.  It will have aged out prior to the primary on Tuesday.  Without it, I have Romney ahead by 1.

In Arizona, a new Rasmussen poll has Romney ahead of Santorum by 13, up from 8 in their poll lase week.  In my projection, I have Romney safely ahead by 10 with 4 days before the primary.  Chalk this one up, it's just about over.

Michigan Primary

The Detroit Free Press and WXYZ released a new poll in Michigan today showing Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney in the Michigan Primary race scheduled for next week.  This is largely in line with the latest polls showiing the race very tight.  It is important to note that this poll was taken prior to last night's debate.  My projection remains basically unchanged.  Santorum +3.

Michigan & Arizona Primary

New polls in Michigan confirm that the gap between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney has closed in the last couple of days.  In fact, in the NBC News/Marist poll released this morning, Romney actually leads Santorum by 2 points.  That said, I still show Rick Santorum slightly ahead (about 2.6%), with a caveat.  The Inside MI Politics/MRG and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll are still be used in my calculation.  By next week when the primary occurs they will have aged out.  Discount those polls, I have Santorum ahead by about 0.7%.  Michigan appears to be a toss-up right now.

In Arizona, 4 polls have been released since my last post with diverging results.   Mitt Romney leads in all for but by margins varying from 3 to 16 points.  For now I'm splitting the difference and saying Romney's ahead by nearly 10.  Unless something changes tonight in the debate, it would appear the gap might be too large for Santorum to overcome.

Michigan Primary

2 new polls released in Michigan today showing the race tightening.  We Ask America has a very high number of undecided voters (20%).  Right now, I've for Santorum ahead by 6 in my projections, but there are 2 polls from last week (Mitchell/Rosetta Stone and Inside MI Politics/MRG) that are driving that gap.  Today's gap appears to be only about 2 points.

Michigan Primary

11 days until the Michigan Primary and Rick Santorum appears to be ahead by about 9 points over Mitt Romney 42-33, after 5 consecutive polls in the last several days show the former Pennsylvania Senator ahead anywhere from 3-15 points.  That said, 11 days has been an eternity this primary season.  No lead has been safe, no matter how large or how close an actual vote comes.  Stay tuned in Michigan. it's an important primary.  The winner here will likely have the wind at his back riding into Super Tuesday on March 6th.

Michigan, Nevada, Arizona Primaries & Caucuses

3 polls in 3 different states were released today in states with upcoming primaries and caucuses.

First, in Nevada, in a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, Mitt Romney leads the field by 20 points at 45%, with Newt Gingrich in second at 25%, followed by Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Only 2 days away from the Nevada Caucus, it would appear based on this poll that Mitt Romney is safely ahead and should cruise to victory.  I'd like to see another couple of polls before the caucus, but I don't know that we'll see any more than this, as Nevada does not appear to be competitive. The question in my mind will be does Mitt Romney get a majority of the vote here.  Right now I've got him just short at 49.5%, but that's far too close to say one way or the other.

In Michigan, a new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 38%-23%, with Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 14%.  This is the second poll taken here in the last 10 days and shows a clear shift toward Romney.  Last week, Epic-MRA showed Romney ahead by only 5.  Undoubtedly, this is a result of the momentum shift that occurred during the Florida campaign last week.  In my projection, Mitt Romney's lead is currently at 11 over Gingrich, with Ron Paul just slightly ahead of Rick Santorum for 3rd place.  The primary here is not going to be held until February 28th, so there is still plenty of time for some changes to occur here.  Most likely neither of the current polls will be used as part of my final projection.

In Arizona, a Rasmussen poll was released showing Mitt Romney doubling Newt Gingrich 48%-24%.  Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Like Michigan, Arizona's primary will not be held until February 28th, so we're still several weeks (and momentum shifts) away from the primary here.

Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Michigan & Minnesota Primary

A couple of polls were also released this week in states holding primaries in February.  Epic-MRA and the Detroit Free Press released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 5 points in Michigan.  The Michigan primary is set to be held on February 28th, but offers a pretty good look at where the state stands a month out.

In Minnesota, Public Policy Polling released a poll this week showing Newt Gingrich ahead by 18 points on Mitt Romney.  Mitt Romney is currently being closely challenged by Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 13%.  Minnesota's primary is only 9 days away and yet, so far, this is the only poll that is not so old that it's rendered meaningless. 

3 other states, Nevada, Maine (February 4th)and Colorado (February 7th) are all scheduled to hold primaries within the next 10 days and yet, there has been no statewide polling in any of these states recently.  I would expect that once we get past Florida on Tuesday, a whole slew of new polls will begin coming out in the next few days.

Michigan

Michigan

9/28: 8 new polls in Michigan have been released in the last 6 days. 6 of them show leads for Sen. Obama, 1 for Sen. McCain and 1 tie. His lead expands a little bit as a result and now leads by 5. Michigan remains barely Obama's.

9/22: 5 new polls have been released with a wide range of margins for Sen. Obama. He could be ahead by as little as 1 or as much as 9. In my projection, his overall lead is 4. Michigan is barely Obama's.

9/11: 2 new polls were released today in Michigan. Insider Advantage shows Sen. McCain with a 1 point lead, while Rasmussen shows Obama ahead by 5. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrink from just under 4 to just over 2. Michigan remains barely Obama's.

9/10: CNN/Time released a new poll in Michigan showing Sen. Obama ahead by 4. So far, it appears that Sen. McCain's bounce may not have helped him here. Sen. Obama's lead remains at just under 4 points and Michigan remains barely on his side.

9/9: A new Strategic Vision (R) poll confirms yesterday's PPP(D) poll. The last 3 polls now show Michigan tightening. I'm looking for Rasmussen to do a poll here in the next week or so and if their result shows a shift as well, Michigan will likely move to toss-up status. For now it remains barely on Obama's side but his overall lead here is cut to under 4 points.

9/8: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 1. This is a gain of 2 points for McCain since their last poll 6 weeks ago. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead is cut to under 6 in my projection and Michigan is moved from leaning to barely Obama.

8/25: The Detroit News released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 2. Little changes as a result, althogh Sen. McCain picks up about 8,000 votes in my projection. With the next poll, any lead for Sen. Obama of less than 6 will result in a shift of Michigan back to Barely Obama.

8/22: The Detroit Free Press released a poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 7. As a result, his lead expands to just over 6 points in my projection. Michigan shifts from barely to leaning Obama.

8/8: Rasmussen released a new poll in Michigan today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 7. This is 1 point less than the lead he had in their last poll in July. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up a net of 19,000 votes. Michigan remains barely Obama.

7/30: Public Policy Polling's new survey in Michigan confirms Quinnipiac and Epic/MRA's polls last week showing Sen. Obama with a very small lead. Unless something drastically changes here, it will likely remain barely Obama for quite some time.

7/24: Today's Quinnipiac poll in Michigan shows Sen. Obama ahead by 4. This is a small decline in Sen. Obama's lead since their last poll in June. As I suspected 3 days ago, Michigan is moved from leaning to barely Obama after this result.

7/21: Epic/MRA released a new poll in Michigan showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 2 points. With this poll the PPP & Survey USA polls from June are removed. A slight gain for Sen. McCain results and the lead has been cut to 6.10%. Another poll with this small a margin will likely result in a change from leaning to barely Obama.

7/15: Rasmussen's new poll put Senator Obama ahead by 8 points. There has been a clear swing in Michigan in the last several Rasmussen polls here. In May, Sen. McCain was ahead by 1. As a result of this poll, Michigan changes from barely Obama to leaning Obama.

6/26: Quinnipiac released a poll in Michigan (another of their 4 large ample, swing state polls), showing Obama leading by 6. It has become clear in the last several polls that their has been a switch in momentum in Michigan. As a result, Michigan moves from a toss-up to barely Obama. 6/24: PPP has published a new poll in Michigan showing Obama with a 9 point lead, just outside the margin of error. Keep in mind this poll is run by Democrats and is likely inflating Obama's totals. That said, there is an emerging trend in Michigan of Obama gaining traction. For now the state is still a toss-up although, the next poll will likely swing the state slightly in Obama's favor. 6/20: Michigan may be ground zero for final week campaigning. Michigan could be 2008's Florida (2000) or Ohio (2004). This battle promises to be highly competitive and may decide the presidency.