Electoral Math

5 new polls get incorporated into my map today resulting in 3 color changes.  First, in New Hampshire WMUR/UNH released a poll Tuesday that shows Pres. Obama ahead here by 9.  This is in contrast to a Dartmouth poll taken a few weeks ago that showed Gov. Romney ahead by 2.  It does however fall in line with their previous polss (which admittedly is 3 months old when Obama was ahead by 10.  As a result of this poll, Pres. Obama's lead which I said in my previous polls was a very tenuous 7 points, down under the 6 point threshhold and moves New Hampshire from Leaning to Barely Obama.

In Texas, a new PPP poll was released showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7.  There have only been 2 polls in Texas this season so far, both of which were taken by PPP and had nearly identical results.  Texas remains unchanged as a result of this poll.  Romney +7.5.

In Arizona, 2 new polls were released showing the state a statistical dead heat.  Behavior Research Center released a poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 2, 42-40.  Arizona State head the exact opposite result with Romney ahead 42-40.  As a result of these polls, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection drops to about 5 points and is currently being heavily influenced by Rasmussen's poll taken last month where Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 11.  Based on all the surrounding polls, this may be a bit of an outlier, but I'm still inclined to believe that Arizona is not quite as close as some of these polls might indicate.  Still, Arizona is moved from leaning to barely Romney.

In New Mexico, PPP released a new poll showing Pres. Obama by 14.  New Mexico remains basically unchanged as their previous poll taken in December showed the gap at 15.  New Mexico remains safely on Obama's side.  Obama +16.

Finally in Virginia, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This is in stark contrast to a poll they took there just a month ago when Barack Obama was ahead by 9.  As a result of this poll, Virginia moves from leaning to barely Obama.  I would not at all be surprised if Virginia moves in to the toss-up with the nexy poll released there if these results are confirmed.  For now, I've got Obama +3, but a very tenuous 3 at that.

Texas

Texas

8/25: Rasmussen's new poll in Texas is identical to their poll 3 weeks ago. There is no change as a result of this poll and Texas remains safely McCain's. As I mentioned in my post on the 14th (below), there is a good chance there will be a change in color once the Baselice & Assoc. poll is removed from my calculation.

8/14: The University of Texas released a poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 10. Little changes in Texas today, although a new poll with similar results that removes the Baselice & Ass. poll from May would likely swing Texas from safe to leaning McCain.
7/31: McCain's lead in Texas remains 9 in Texas in Rasmussen's new poll. Similar to Montana, I'm looking for another pollster to come into Texas to age out some of the older polls. McCain's lead remains at 11 points and for now remains safely in his column.
6/28: Rasmussen released a poll showing McCain with a 9 point lead. This more or less confirms the Lycera poll I was unsure of on Thursday. There is also a 4 point drop in McCain's numbers since the last Rasmussen poll 3 weeks ago.
6/26: The new Texas Lyceura Poll shows McCain with only a 5 point lead. For now it is being treated as an outlier and Texas remains a safe McCain state.
6/21: It doesn't get any bigger and redder than Texas. The latest polling shows McCain with a growing lead and will likely continue to the election.