Super Tuesday Results

Overall, my projections in the 3 big states last night held up pretty well.  That said, I did pick the wrong winner in Ohio.  It was a tough race to call.  In the week leading up to the primary, polls ranged from Romney +4 to Santorum +6.  Even with that, the difference between what I had projected the gap to be and the actual results was only about 1.65%.  In Ohio, Mitt Romney out performed my projected by just shy of 3.5% and Rick Santorum by just under 2%.  My best overall projection was in Georgia, which is not all that suprising considering that the polling throught the last week of the campaign were pretty consistent. There was a bit more noise in Ohio & Tennessee to sort out.  While certainly in the margin of error, We Ask America actually had Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by 1, largely driving the difference between my projection and the actual result.

I'm pretty pleased with how I did last night although, I wish I could have my Ohio projection back.

Tennessee Primary

2 new polls in Tennessee today with a split decision. PPP's new poll has Rick Santorum ahead of Mitt Romney by 5, but We Ask America puts him behind Romney by 1.  That's not the story.  The story is the final day surge of Newt Gingrich.  Just yesterday, 2 polls had him in the high teens to low 20s, but today's polls show him as a true contender.  My final projection has Rick Santorum winning by 3, but don't be surprised if either Mitt Romney or the suddenly resurgent Newt Gingrich pulls this one out.

Tennessee Primary

Rasmussen released a new poll in Tennessee this morning showing Rick Santorum ahead by only 4, down from nearly 20 points 2 weeks ago.  Tennessee appears very much like it could be up for grabs.
The combination of a Newt Gingrich win in Georgia and losses for Rick Santorum after having big leads in Ohio and Tennessee could potentially create yet another shift in the challenger to Mitt Romney.

Tennessee Primary

Two polls so far in Tennessee, (one of which is admittedly an extremely small sample) both showing Rick Santorum with substantial leads.  5 days from the primary it would appear Snatorum might run away with Tennessee, but then both of these polls were taken before Michigan & Arizona.

Tennessee

Tennessee

9/28: A new ARG poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 23. His overall lead expands to 23 as well and Tennessee remains a safe McCain state.

8/22: Rasmussen's new poll in Tennessee shows Sen. McCain ahead by 24. As a result, his lead expands to over 20 points. Tennessee is one of the safest of Sen. McCain's states.

8/18: Ayres McHenry (R) released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 15. This is in line with most other polls little is changed here. Tennessee remains safely McCain's.
6/26: Rasmussen released a poll today showing McCain with a 15 point lead. Based on the polling data so far, it would appear the Rasmussen's poll from April was an outlier and as a result the lead decreasesfor McCain, although still far ahead.

6/21: Tennessee should be an easy win for McCain This will likely be the third consecutive election in which the Republicans win in the Volunteer State. The last Democrat to carry Tennessee was Bill Clinton in 1996.