Electoral Math

5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama.  With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%. 

First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days.  With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1.  Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2.  This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago.  As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5.  Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.

In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie.  With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day.  Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months.  Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.

Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection.  Obama +3.

It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended.  That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race.  As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker. 

It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections.  Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another.  Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads.  In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.

Electoral Math

5 new polls get incorporated into my map today resulting in 3 color changes.  First, in New Hampshire WMUR/UNH released a poll Tuesday that shows Pres. Obama ahead here by 9.  This is in contrast to a Dartmouth poll taken a few weeks ago that showed Gov. Romney ahead by 2.  It does however fall in line with their previous polss (which admittedly is 3 months old when Obama was ahead by 10.  As a result of this poll, Pres. Obama's lead which I said in my previous polls was a very tenuous 7 points, down under the 6 point threshhold and moves New Hampshire from Leaning to Barely Obama.

In Texas, a new PPP poll was released showing Mitt Romney ahead by 7.  There have only been 2 polls in Texas this season so far, both of which were taken by PPP and had nearly identical results.  Texas remains unchanged as a result of this poll.  Romney +7.5.

In Arizona, 2 new polls were released showing the state a statistical dead heat.  Behavior Research Center released a poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 2, 42-40.  Arizona State head the exact opposite result with Romney ahead 42-40.  As a result of these polls, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection drops to about 5 points and is currently being heavily influenced by Rasmussen's poll taken last month where Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 11.  Based on all the surrounding polls, this may be a bit of an outlier, but I'm still inclined to believe that Arizona is not quite as close as some of these polls might indicate.  Still, Arizona is moved from leaning to barely Romney.

In New Mexico, PPP released a new poll showing Pres. Obama by 14.  New Mexico remains basically unchanged as their previous poll taken in December showed the gap at 15.  New Mexico remains safely on Obama's side.  Obama +16.

Finally in Virginia, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This is in stark contrast to a poll they took there just a month ago when Barack Obama was ahead by 9.  As a result of this poll, Virginia moves from leaning to barely Obama.  I would not at all be surprised if Virginia moves in to the toss-up with the nexy poll released there if these results are confirmed.  For now, I've got Obama +3, but a very tenuous 3 at that.

Michigan & Arizona Results

In both states, polls generally underestimated Mitt Romney's performance and over estimated Rick Santorum's. 

Also worth noting, is that I picked the wrony winner in Michigan.  Ultimately, there were two factors that were the root cause.

First, Public Policy Polling released 2 (relatively) small sample size polls in the last two days with diverging results.  On Sunday night, PPP showed Mitt Romney ahead by 2.  Monday night, PPP released another poll showing Rick Santorum ahead by 5.  Because I only allow one poll from any pollster in my results, Monday night's release was included.

Second, as part of my methodology, I include all polls in the last two weeks.  Two weeks ago, Rick Santorum was generally leading in Michigan polls. As polling services scrambled to make final prediction in the closing days of the campaign, most og the older polls were excluded.  However, there were a couple of notable exceptions.  ARG last released a poll on 2/22 and the Detroit Free Press last released a poll on 2/21.  Both showed Santorum ahead by 3 or 4 points.  NBC News/Marist also had a poll included in that was taken on 2/20, but had Mitt Romney ahead by 2.

By excluding last week's polls and normalizing the PPP problem and my projection would have MItt ROmney ahead by about 1.5%.  Lesson learned.

Michigan & Arizona Primay

Michigan:
Rick Santorum 39.05%
Mitt Romney 38.51%
Ron Paul 12.17%
Newt Gingrich 9.26%

Arizona:
Mitt Romney 42.09%
Rick Santorum 30.56%
Newt Gingrich 17.06%
Ron Paul 9.28%

Arizona Primary

A new ARG poll was released in Arizona today showing Mitt ROmney's lead down to 4.  At this point it appears to be an outlier.  Overall, it doesn't change my projection all that much cutting the lead from 10 to 9 points.  Unless something dramatic happens here in the next couple of days, it would appear Romney will win this one.

Michigan & Arizona Primary

2 new polls were released in Michigan today showing Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum.  In the new Rasmussen poll Mitt Romney is ahead by 6 vs. a 4 point deficit just 3 days earlier.  A similar if less dramatic story in Mitchell/Rosetta Stone's new poll, where Mitt Romney is ahead by 3, vs. a 2 point deficit between Monday and Thursday.  That said, I still just barely have Rick Santorum in the lead in my projection, although it is clear to me that Romney has taken the lead here.  The reason is that the Inside MI Politics/MRG poll is still counted in my calculation.  It will have aged out prior to the primary on Tuesday.  Without it, I have Romney ahead by 1.

In Arizona, a new Rasmussen poll has Romney ahead of Santorum by 13, up from 8 in their poll lase week.  In my projection, I have Romney safely ahead by 10 with 4 days before the primary.  Chalk this one up, it's just about over.

Michigan & Arizona Primary

New polls in Michigan confirm that the gap between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney has closed in the last couple of days.  In fact, in the NBC News/Marist poll released this morning, Romney actually leads Santorum by 2 points.  That said, I still show Rick Santorum slightly ahead (about 2.6%), with a caveat.  The Inside MI Politics/MRG and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll are still be used in my calculation.  By next week when the primary occurs they will have aged out.  Discount those polls, I have Santorum ahead by about 0.7%.  Michigan appears to be a toss-up right now.

In Arizona, 4 polls have been released since my last post with diverging results.   Mitt Romney leads in all for but by margins varying from 3 to 16 points.  For now I'm splitting the difference and saying Romney's ahead by nearly 10.  Unless something changes tonight in the debate, it would appear the gap might be too large for Santorum to overcome.

Arizona Primary

A new PPP poll was released today showing Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by 3 points in Arizona.  My projection changes slightly, with Romney still ahead by 7.  As I mentioned Saturday when Rasmussen released their poll, I expect Arizona will be decided by the debate this week.

Arizona Primary

Rasmussen released a new poll in Arizona yesterday showing Mitt Romney still ahead there at 39%, with Rick Santorum in second at 31%, Newt Gingrich in third at 15% and Ron Paul at 7%.  Romney's lead has shrunk from 24 points down to 8, as his level of support dropped by 9 points while Rick Santorum gained 18 points.  Rick Santorum has been the beneficiary of sagging poll number from both the former Massachusetts Governor and Gingrich who also dropped by 9 points since their last poll 2 weeks ago.  Still 10 days from the primary, Rick Santorum still has a chance to capture Arizona if he can continue on this path.  Arizona may come down to the debate scheduled for early next week.  I would expec there will me a few more polls between now and the primary as February has been a very light month on the political calendar.

Michigan, Nevada, Arizona Primaries & Caucuses

3 polls in 3 different states were released today in states with upcoming primaries and caucuses.

First, in Nevada, in a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll, Mitt Romney leads the field by 20 points at 45%, with Newt Gingrich in second at 25%, followed by Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Only 2 days away from the Nevada Caucus, it would appear based on this poll that Mitt Romney is safely ahead and should cruise to victory.  I'd like to see another couple of polls before the caucus, but I don't know that we'll see any more than this, as Nevada does not appear to be competitive. The question in my mind will be does Mitt Romney get a majority of the vote here.  Right now I've got him just short at 49.5%, but that's far too close to say one way or the other.

In Michigan, a new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 38%-23%, with Rick Santorum at 17% and Ron Paul at 14%.  This is the second poll taken here in the last 10 days and shows a clear shift toward Romney.  Last week, Epic-MRA showed Romney ahead by only 5.  Undoubtedly, this is a result of the momentum shift that occurred during the Florida campaign last week.  In my projection, Mitt Romney's lead is currently at 11 over Gingrich, with Ron Paul just slightly ahead of Rick Santorum for 3rd place.  The primary here is not going to be held until February 28th, so there is still plenty of time for some changes to occur here.  Most likely neither of the current polls will be used as part of my final projection.

In Arizona, a Rasmussen poll was released showing Mitt Romney doubling Newt Gingrich 48%-24%.  Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.  Like Michigan, Arizona's primary will not be held until February 28th, so we're still several weeks (and momentum shifts) away from the primary here.

Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Arizona

11/4: Since the Arizona St. poll came out here last week showing Sen. McCain ahead here by only 2. There has been a lot of polling and a lot of speculation that Sen. Obama could pick off his opponent's home state. I think he falls just short. McCain +5.

Arizona

8/24: Mason-Dixon's new poll in Arizona shows Sen. McCain ahead here by only 6. While it confirms Arizona State's finding from last week, I'm a little suspicious that Arizona is actually this close. There are a couple of reasons for this. The first is that the sample size is only 400 which generates a +/- of 5%. The other is that the poll is older than the Arizona St. poll. As a result, Sen. McCain's margin is cut to 13 here, but the lead has a chance to be cut even more as new data becomes available.

\8/20: Arizona St. University released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 10. Their results are similar to their last poll in that there is a very large percentage (nearly 30%) of undecided voters. Very little changes in Arizona and Sen. McCain is still safely ahead here.
8/4: 2 new polls in Arizona were released today. Rasmussen's poll shows Sen. McCain ahead by 16, while Public Policy Polling's (D) shows the lead at 12. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead in Arizona expands from 16 to 18 points.
6/26: Arizona State released a poll today showing McCain with a 10 point lead. It is a very small sample (only 175 registered voters) and show that 34% of those polled were undecided. It is very difficult to draw any conclusions from this poll.
6/21:Early on, the Democrats thought they could get a steal in the Mountain West in Arizona. Since McCain became the nominee Arizona has been taken off the map and is a safe Republican state. The Democrats will turn to other Western states (Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico) to try to steal electoral votes from past elections.