Electoral Math

3 new polls today resulting in Iowa, Massachusetts and Ohio today, resulting in a color change on the map and 6 EV added to Pres. Obama's side.  Additionally, his lead expands by about 145,000 votes to 5.68% in my projection.

First, in Iowa, PPP released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 10.  This is a substantial shift from the previous poll here by the Des Moines Register when Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 2.  As a result, Obama's lead expands from 1.9% to 3.6% and Iowa is moved from toss-up to barely on Obama's side.

In Massachusetts, Rasmussen released a new poll shoiwng Barack Obama ahead by 21.  This is in contrast to their last poll in April when he was ahead by only 11.  Massachusetts remains safely on Obama's side as his lead expands in my projection from 18 to 22 points.

In Ohio, PPP released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  It's a little on the high side of previous polls, but largely in line with the poll it is replacing (Fox News) in my projection.  Ohio remains barely on Obama's side.  Obama +5.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts

9/28: 2 new polls in Massachusetts show Sen. Obama ahead by 16. His overall lead expands slightly to 17 points and Massachusetts remains safely Obama's.

8/7: Rasmussen released a new poll in Massachusetts today showing Sen. Obama's lead shrinking from 20 to 15 since their last poll at the end of June. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up about 2.3% (72,000 votes). Massachusetts remains safely Obama's.

8/4: Suffolk University released a new poll in Massachusetts today showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 9. Their previous poll in early June (shortly after Sen. Obama became the presumptive nominee) showed his lead at 23. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead drops from 20 to 17.

7/1: Sen. Obama holds a 20 point lead in today's Rasmussen poll and confirms the bump shown in yesterday's Survey USA poll. These polls all but eliminate any chance of Sen. McCain competing here, which was the but of some sharp remarks made against Obama during the primaries.

6/30: Survey USA has released a poll in Massachusetts showing Obama with a 13 point lead. This is a significant jump since their last poll 6 weeks ago, and as with other states shows a strengthening of Sen. Obama's lead.

6/20: Massachusetts appears to be swinging gently to the right and if the trend continues, McCain might have a chance to make Massachusetts competitive.