Electoral Math

5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama.  With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%. 

First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days.  With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1.  Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2.  This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago.  As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5.  Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.

In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie.  With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day.  Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months.  Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.

Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection.  Obama +3.

It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended.  That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race.  As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker. 

It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections.  Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another.  Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads.  In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.

Electoral Math

Today, polls in several swing states (FL, PA, & OH specifically) were released in the theoretical matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney all of which result in color changes on my map.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by only 3.  Part of this may be due to the approaching Pennsylvania primary, but it's down from a 6 point lead Quinnipiac released 2 weeks ago.  As a result, Obama's overall lead in the state drops from about 7 points to just under 6 and moves Pennsylvania from leaning to barely Obama.

In Ohio, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac both released polls today showing Obama ahead by 6 (Quinnipiac) to 8 (Rasmussen) points.  This is largely in line with most of the polling here in recent months with the exception of a possible outlier released by Fox News released in the run-up to the Ohio Primary last month.  With these new polls, Obama's lead increases over to just over 6 points from about 4 and moves Ohio from barely to leaning Obama.

But the big news tonight is in Florida.  Here, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  This new poll ages out some of the polls that were taken during the week leading into the primary there where Romney was shown with small leads in a couple of polls and moves Florida from a toss-up to barely Obama.

Based on the new map, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney now 321-206 with only 10 electoral votes in my toss-up column.  That said, there's a long way to go and anything can happen, but as it stands right now, Mitt Romney would have to fight and win in all of the states that are currently showing leads of up to 6 points for (FL,PA,CO and NV) Obama in order to win the election.

Pennsylvania

11/4: Pennsylvania has been ground zero for the McCain campaign for the last several weeks. It is a state he simply must win if he's going to have any chance at winning the election. While he had been able to cut the gap here over the last couple of weeks from about 13 down to about 6 (in fact a couple of polls only had him down by 4), it appears that in the last couple of days of polling, Sen. Obama was able to reestablish xome of his lead. Obama +10.

Pennsylvania

9/26: 12 new polls have been released showing a spread between a tie and a 9 point Obama lead. The truth appears to be somewhere in the middle. Sen. Obama leads by about 4.5 points and is barely on his side.

9/11: Quinnipiac's new poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 3. His lead has now been cut to about 3 points. Pennsylvania remains barely on his side, but his lead is begining to shrink.

9/10: Strategic Vision (R) released a new poll in Pennsylvania showing Sen. Obama ahead by only 2. As a result, his lead is now cut to under 5 points and Pennsylvania remains barely on his side.

9/8: A new Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 2. This shows yet another gain for Sen. McCain as his deficit was 5 in their poll just 3 weeks ago. Like Michigan, the lead in Pennsylvania is cut to 5 and Pennsylvania is moved from leaning to barely Obama.

8/27: CNN/Time's new poll shows Senl. Obama ahead by 5. Pennsylvania has been for Obama simliar to North Carolina for McCain. Polling has been very consistent showing 5-7 point leads for Obama here. No real changes today, as Sen. McCain gains about .04% of the vote.

8/26: Quinnipiac University released a new poll in Pennsylvania today. Sen Obama holds a 7 point lead, identical to their poll last month. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead moves from 5.7 to 6.4%. Pennsylvania is moved from Barely to Leaning Obama.

8/21: Sen. Obama leads by 5 in a new Rasmussen poll and matches the previous 2 polls. As a result, his lead is cut to just iunder 6 points and Pennsylvania is moved from leanign to barely Obama.

8/19: Susquehanna released a new poll in Pennsylvania today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. Sen. McCain cuts the lead from 7 to 6 here and Pennsylvania remains leaning Obama. Another similar poll result will likely result in a change to barely Obama.

8/13: Franklin & Marshall College released a new poll in Pennsylvania today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 5. This is in line with other polls of late. Sen. Obama's lead in pennsylvania shrinks from 8 to 7 points as a result.

7/31: Today's new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Obama ahead by 7. This is down 5 points from their poll in mid-June. As a result, Sen. McCain picks up about 1 point and the lead is about 7.5 points.

7/30: Strategic Vision (R) released a new poll today showing Barack Obama ahead by 9. This compared to a 10 point lead for McCain in their last poll here in April. That being said, there is an interesting side note to this poll. Usually in presidential polls, who you would vote for is the first question. In their poll, it was the last of 13 (related to politics). It is likely ther is some sway based on the placem ent of the question. You can find the survey here: http://strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_083008.htm Little changes with this poll and Pennsylvania remains leaning toward Obama.

7/24: Rasmussen's poll today shows Sen. Obama ahead by 5. There is little change since last month's poll. His lead expands by about by about 1/3 of a point.
6/23: A new Rasmussen poll has been released showing Obama ahead by 4 points. This slightly expands on Obama's lead in the previous Rasmussen poll.

6/20: Pennsylvania will likely be a battleground state again in 2008. Polling has shifted from favoring McCain to Obama in the last few months. It is likely that bounces in both directions will continue to Election Day. For now, it is leaning toward Obama.