Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

5 new polls get added to the map today in 5 likely competitive states (NC,VA,NV,MT and WI), two of which change color on my map today.  Of these, North Carolina moves into the toss-up column and 15 EV are taken away from Romney in my projection.  In the popular vote, Obama's lead expands from 5.90% up to 6.03%, after picking up about 180,000 votes in my projection.

First, in North Carolina, Survey USA released a new poll showing President Obama ahead by 4.  Polls have varied pretty widely here over the last several months showing as much as a 14 point swing from Obama +5 to Romney +9.  With this new poll, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection has been cut to just under 1% and North Carolina moves from barely Romney to toss-up.

In Virginia, PPP released a poll showing President Obama ahead by 8. This is in contrast to recent polls by Roanoke College and Rasmussen that showed Mitt Romney ahead here. As a result, Obama's lead expands from 3 to about 5 in my projection.

In Montana, PPP released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by only 5.  This is down from 9 in Rasmussen's poll last month and down from 10 in PPP's last poll here in November.  As a result, Mitt Romney's lead is cut from just over 10 down to about 8 and Montana swings from Safe to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  This is in line with PPP's poll from last month and up a couple of points from their previous poll about 6 weeks ago.  With this poll, Obama's lead basically unchanged.  Obama +8.

Finally, in Wisconsin, Marquette University released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 9.  While there hasn't been a poll here in nearly a month, it appears to be in line with previous results.  There is some evidence of a potentially expanding lead, as Marquette's last poll here in March showed Obama ahead by only 5.  I'm inclined to believe that Wisconsin will end up more competitive than current polls indicate, but for right now it's Obama +13.

North Carolina

11/4: Take your pick here. North Carolina is a close a state as you'll find in this election. Like in many other battleground states in this cycle, polls have tightened here. Over the last week polls have been mixed. Based on early voting, it appears that Sen. Obama may have a slight advantage. Obama +1 (possibly less).

North Carolina

9/26: 2 new polls have been released showing a tie and a small lead for Sen. Obama. North Carolina is moved to a toss-up as Sen. McCain's overall lead is cut to under 1 point.

9/22: 4 new polls were released showing small leads (and even a tie) for Sen. McCain. It appears now that the Survey USA and Daily KO's poll showing much larger leads are outliers. North Carolina is moved back to leaning McCain and may go back to barely McCain if further polling shows similar results.

9/11: 3 new polls, all of which were partisan (Daily KO's and Garin Hart Yang for the Democrats and Civitas for the Republicans) were released today. 1 of which shows Sen. McCain's lead here at 17, while the other 2 show North Carolina to be close. The result: either McCain's ahead by a blowout margin, or its within a few points. For now, I'm putting North Carolina safely on McCain's side strictly by the numbers, but there's an awful lot of noise here that's hard to interpret.

9/10: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll in North Carolina showing Sen. McCain ahead by only 4. This is in direct contrast (possibly intentionally) to Survey USA's poll from yesterday when McCain led by 20. It remains to be seen whether or not Survey USA's poll is an outlier. For now North Carolina remains leaning toward McCain.
9/9: Sen. McCain now leads by 20 according to Survey USA. Their latest poll shows a jump in Sen. McCain's lead of 16 points since their last poll 4 weeks ago. While I'm looking to confirm this poll, for now North Carolina is moved from from barely to leaning McCain.

9/3: What a shocker! Another new poll in North Carolina shows Sen. McCain with a 3 point lead. Little changes as a result, although Sen. Obama gains fractionally.

8/25: Public Policy Polling (D) released a new poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 3. Not much changes here, as Sen. Obama gains only fractionally. North Carolina remains Barely McCain.

8/20: Insider Advantage released a poll in North Carolina today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 2. As a result, Sen. McCain's gain from yesterday disappears but his over all lead is still about 4 points and North Carolina remains barely on his side.

8/19: Civitas (R) released a poll today showing Sen. McCain expanding his lead to 6. His lead expands to nearly 5 and North Carolina remains barely in his column.

8/15: Sen. McCain has another 4 point lead in today's Rasmussen poll in North Carolina. As a result, he gains by fractions of a point and North Carolina remains barely McCain's.

8/12: Another polls in North Carolina, another small lead for McCain. For nearly 3 months, spanning 10 polls, Sen. McCain has held a lead between 2 & 5 points. Little changed here today. North Carolina remains barely McCain's.

8/1: Daily KO's/Research 2000 released a poll in North Carolina showing Sen. McCain with a 4 point lead. As I have mentioned in previous posts about North Carolina, it continues to be remarkably consistent. North Carolina remains barely McCain's.
7/29: Yet another poll is released in North Carolina today (Public Policy Polling-D) and again another small lead for Sen. McCain. In fact, ever polls in North Carolina in the last 2 months have shown Sen. McCain ahead by between 2 and 5 points. Sen. Obama makes a very small gain (about 9,000 net votes) here and North Carolina remains barely McCain.

7/21: Civitas (R) released a new poll in North Carolina today showing Sen. McCain with a 3 point lead. North Carolina has had some of the most consistent polling in the country. McCain's 4 point lead leaves the state barely in his column.

7/17: A new Rasmussen poll continues to shoe John McCain with a small lead. His overall lead expands slightly to about 4.5 points, but North Carolina remains barely in his column.

7/15: Survey USA released a new poll today in North Carolina (this is their first in several days and honestly I was wondering when the would). John McCain leads by 5 and is a slightly lower lead than their last poll in May. As a result of this poll Sen. Obama gains about 1 point and the lead is shrunk to 4.

7/1: This is one of the few states that has not shown a significant bump in polling since Sen. Obama became the presumptive nominee. North Carolina is still considered very close and is a likely target for the Democrats to win a state won in previous elections by the Republicans. 6/20: North Carolina is closer than in recent elections and may force McCain to visit a state he would rather not have to. In this way, it is similar to New Jersey for Obama.