Electoral Vote Trend

11/4: Sen. Obama's electoral led has held over the last several weeks, even as polls in most battleground states have gotten closer.

Electoral Vote Trend

10/26: ...in the last 2 days, Sen. Obama has had three states move from his barely column, back to toss-up. There is evidence in these swing states that they may be beginning to turn the other way, despite the large leads in national polls which are running somewhere around 7 points...

Electoral Vote Trend

9/30: 2 states are moved out of toss-up status today, one each for Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama. First in Indiana, Sen. McCain gains 11 electoral votes as his lead has expanded there to about 3 in my projection. In Virginia, there is a 3 point lead for Sen. Obama and its 13 electoral votes are moved to Sen. Obama. As a result, for the first time in nearly 2 months, Sen. Obama moves over 270 electoral votes for the first time and has almost reached his peak total from July (293).

Electoral Vote Trend

9/29: Sen. McCain loses 20 more electoral votes today as Ohio is moved into the toss-up category again. It is likely to remain there for a considerable amount of time. There has now been a shift of 94 electoral votes in the last 11 days.

Electoral Vote Trend

9/28: Sen. Obama's lead in the electoral count has climb from just 1 9 days ago to 75 today. On September 18th, Sen. Obama had Pennsylvania taken away dropping his count to 248 after, Sen. McCain gained 20 electoral votes in Ohio the day before, giving him 247. Since then, Sen. Obama has regained Pennsylvania, while McCain lost his leads in Indiana, North Carolina and Florida. Today, we stand at 269-194.

Electoral Vote Trend

9/17: Barack Obama picks up 5 electoral votes in New Mexico today after a new Survey USA poll shows him ahead by 8. New Mexico has swung wildly in recent polls, but overall this is in line with where New Mexico has been for several months.

Electoral Vote Trend

9/16: Sen. McCain picks up 20 electoral votes today in Ohio after new polls suggest his lead has been stretched to about 4 points there.

Electoral Vote Trend

9/11: 3 changes again today in the electoral count. Colorado (9 electoral votes) are taken away from Sen. Obama as new poll suggest he still leads but only just slightly. In Ohio, Sen. McCain loses 20 electoral votes after a new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by 5. this poll may be an outlier, but for now Ohio is too close to call. Similar results in Nevada as Sen. McCain's lead shrinks to under 2 points. Florida on the other hand moves toward McCain and carries 27 electoral votes with it. The net result: Obama 259 (-9), McCain 227 (+2).

Electoral Vote Trend

9/10: Sen. Obama's electoral votes drop 1 to 268 after New Mexico (5 electoral votes) is moved to toss-up status and New Hampshire (4) is moved barely on his side. Sen. McCain gains 3 electoral votes today as North Dakota is now moved from toss-up to barely on his side.

Electoral Vote Trend

9/8: 3 changes were made to the electoral vote today. 9 electoral votes were added to Sen. Obama's side as his lead in Colorado (however brief) is just large enough to call it barely on his side. Sen. McCain had moves in 2 large swing states. In Florida, his lead was cut to under 2 and 27 electoral votes were taken away, while in Ohio, he picks up 20 electoral votes. It's still too early to call if there's been a significant electoral vote shift yet. Many more states need to be polled and all of them need to be polled more than once.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/28: The 5th change in the electoral vote in 7 days occurs today as Colorado is shifted from Barely Obama to toss-up again. As a result, his electoral total drops to 260.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/27: New Mexico is moved back into Sen. Obama's column, and his electoral total bumps up to 269. He has now regained leads in 2 of the 3 states (New Mexico, Colorado & New Hampshire) he lost his leads in the last 2 weeks.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/25: Sen. Obama picks up 9 electoral votes in Colorado today, making up the 9 he lost in New Hampshire and New Mexico last week.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/24: Mason-Dixon's Mountain West super poll causes 2 changes in electoral count. First, Sen. McCain gains 5 electoral votes in Nevada as their new poll shows him ahead by 7. I'm inclined to think its an outlier because Rasmussen's poll shows his lead at only 3 and Research 2000 show Obama with a 1 point lead. The other map change was in New Mexico as Sen. Obama's small lead is erased by a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 4 here. This is likely an outlier as well as Sen. Obama has held small leads in every poll other than this for the last 4 months and this poll occurred before Rasmussen's poll last week where Obama was ahead by 6.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/21: Sen. Obama loses 4 more electoral votes today in New Hampshire as his lead has shrunk to under 2%. Ironically, this comes on the same day where he has his first substantial popular vote gain in weeks.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/14: Colorado is moved into the toss up column, and as a result Sen. Obama falls below the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election for the first time. Sen. Obama's lead also drops to its lowest level today at 40 electoral votes.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/8: Sen. McCain picks up 11 electoral votes in Missouri today and equals the closest he has been to Sen. Obama in electoral votes since the general election campaign began. On July 22nd, the electoral count was identical to what it is today at 273-224.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/4: Sen. McCain picks up 27 electoral votes today in Florida as his lead expands to 3 points there and as moved from toss-up to barely McCain. He previously gained Florida on July 22nd and lost it 1 day later.

Electoral Vote Trend

8/1: Today Sen. McCain loses 11 electoral votes in Missouri (though he still leads Missouri is too close to call). He originally acquired these on June 25th. Ironically, at the same time that Sen. McCain is gaining almost universally in national tracking polls (he's tied in the Gallup poll and only down 1 in Rasmussen's) he has returned to where he started 6 weeks ago.

Electoral Vote Trend

7/23: Today marks the third consecutive day with movement in the electoral vote based on my projections. Florida has been moved back into the toss-up column after today's Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama in the lead. Sen. Obama now leads the electoral count 273-197.