Electoral Math

5 new polls get added to the map today in 5 likely competitive states (NC,VA,NV,MT and WI), two of which change color on my map today.  Of these, North Carolina moves into the toss-up column and 15 EV are taken away from Romney in my projection.  In the popular vote, Obama's lead expands from 5.90% up to 6.03%, after picking up about 180,000 votes in my projection.

First, in North Carolina, Survey USA released a new poll showing President Obama ahead by 4.  Polls have varied pretty widely here over the last several months showing as much as a 14 point swing from Obama +5 to Romney +9.  With this new poll, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection has been cut to just under 1% and North Carolina moves from barely Romney to toss-up.

In Virginia, PPP released a poll showing President Obama ahead by 8. This is in contrast to recent polls by Roanoke College and Rasmussen that showed Mitt Romney ahead here. As a result, Obama's lead expands from 3 to about 5 in my projection.

In Montana, PPP released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by only 5.  This is down from 9 in Rasmussen's poll last month and down from 10 in PPP's last poll here in November.  As a result, Mitt Romney's lead is cut from just over 10 down to about 8 and Montana swings from Safe to Leans Romney.

In Nevada, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  This is in line with PPP's poll from last month and up a couple of points from their previous poll about 6 weeks ago.  With this poll, Obama's lead basically unchanged.  Obama +8.

Finally, in Wisconsin, Marquette University released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 9.  While there hasn't been a poll here in nearly a month, it appears to be in line with previous results.  There is some evidence of a potentially expanding lead, as Marquette's last poll here in March showed Obama ahead by only 5.  I'm inclined to believe that Wisconsin will end up more competitive than current polls indicate, but for right now it's Obama +13.

Montana

Sen. Obama has closed a significant gap here in the last 6 weeks, but I think he falls just short. McCain +3.

Montana

9/28: 2 new polls were released in Montana confirming Rasmussen's result here 2 weeks ago. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead expands to 12 and MOntana is moved from leaning to safely McCain.

9/9: Montana appears to be swinging hard toward Sen. McCain, after a new Rasmussen poll shows him ahead by 11. As a result, Montana is moved to leaning McCain, although the race here may be over.

7/31: Rasmussen's new poll in Montana shows Sen. McCain ahead by 1, as compared to a 5 point lead for Obama 4 weeks ago. Sen. McCain's lead in Montana jumps to nearly 6 points, but the May Mason-Dixon and February Survey USA poll are still included. I'm hoping for new polling from other services to try to get a better read. At this point it's hard to tell whether Rasmussen's polling are outlying a little or not. For now, Montana remains barely McCain.

7/3: Montana? Seriously? A new Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama with a 5 point lead overn John McCain in Montana. Barack Obama is spending a considerable amount of time in North Dakota (today) and Montana (tomorrow) because he believes he can compete there. There may be some underlying influence on this poll based on his planned visit during the hoiday weekend. More polling will be needed to confirm this. However, as a result of this poll Montana is changed from leaning McCain to barely McCain. 6/20: Montana is closer than in recent elections, although will still likely be won by the Republican. It is doubtful Obama will attempt to capture Montana.