5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama. With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%.
First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1. This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days. With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1. Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.
In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2. This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago. As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5. Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.
In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9. This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie. With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.
In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8. Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day. Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months. Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.
Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7. Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection. Obama +3.
It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended. That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race. As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker.
It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections. Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another. Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads. In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.
