Electoral Math

This week, there is no change in the electoral count on my map, although there are a few changes in color.

Nevada moves from leaning to barely Obama as a new Rasmussen poll released this week showed Pres. Obama ahead 50-45.  Their previous poll in April showed the lead at 8.  Currently in my projection, he’s ahead by 5.6% which is just enough to change color.

In Minnesota, Survey USA released a new poll that showed Pres. Obama ahead 46-40 in a likely voter poll, the previous poll in May which looks at registered voters showed the President by 14.  My projection moves down from Obama +15 to just under 10 (9.97%) and moves the North Star state from safe to leaning Obama.

In Wisconsin, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by only 3.  However, in Rasmussen’s previous poll in Mid-June showed Romney ahead by 3.  The replacement of this older poll, pushes Obama ahead by 6.3% and moves Wisconsin from barely to leaning Obama.

In Missouri, WeAskAmerica released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  As a result, his lead grows from 5 to 6.8% and moves the state from barely to leaning Romney.

Overall, not much changed this week although polling continues to move slightly more favorable to Mitt Romney overall.  In my popular vote projection, Obama’s lead has been cut from 4.32% to 4.14%.  That said, the map is still daunting for Mitt Romney.

Based on my projections, and presuming that swing states are switched in order of current lead, Romney’s map is pretty difficult.  He would need to win the 6 states that are currently closest to his reach.  Ohio would be the game changer, but would require a shift of 4.7% to win.

North Carolina (15):        Romney +0.92%               Obama 297, Romney 206

Florida (29):                        Obama +0.65%                  Obama 297, Romney 235

Iowa (6):                              Obama +0.90%                  Obama 297, Romney 241

Virginia (13):                       Obama +2.54%                  Obama 284, Romney 254

Colorado (9):                      Obama +2.66%                  Obama 275, Romney 263

Ohio (18):                            Obama +4.69%                  Obama 257, Romney 281

Michigan (16):                   Obama +5.11%                  Obama 241, Romney 297

New Hampshire (4):       Obama +5.35%                  Obama 237, Romney 301

Nevada (6):                        Obama +5.58%                  Obama 231, Romney 307

Electoral Math

3 new polls today resulting in Iowa, Massachusetts and Ohio today, resulting in a color change on the map and 6 EV added to Pres. Obama's side.  Additionally, his lead expands by about 145,000 votes to 5.68% in my projection.

First, in Iowa, PPP released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 10.  This is a substantial shift from the previous poll here by the Des Moines Register when Mitt Romney was shown ahead by 2.  As a result, Obama's lead expands from 1.9% to 3.6% and Iowa is moved from toss-up to barely on Obama's side.

In Massachusetts, Rasmussen released a new poll shoiwng Barack Obama ahead by 21.  This is in contrast to their last poll in April when he was ahead by only 11.  Massachusetts remains safely on Obama's side as his lead expands in my projection from 18 to 22 points.

In Ohio, PPP released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  It's a little on the high side of previous polls, but largely in line with the poll it is replacing (Fox News) in my projection.  Ohio remains barely on Obama's side.  Obama +5.

Electoral Math

5 new polls today in competitive states result in 4 color changes on the map, 3 in Mitt Romney's direction and 1 moving slightly toward Barack Obama.  With these new polls, Obama's lead in the popular vote is cut by about 600,000 votes or 0.46%. 

First in Florida, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1.  This puts the last 3 polls in Romney's column, all within the last 10 days.  With this new poll and aging out of some previously taken polls changes the state in my projection from Obama +4 to Romney +1.  Florida moves from barely Obama to toss-up and 29 electoral votes are removed from Obama's column.

In Ohio, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 2.  This poll shows President Obama's smallest lead since a Fox News poll showed Mitt Romney ahead by 6 three months ago.  As a result, Obama's lead is cut from 7 to 5 in my projection and Ohio is moved from 7 to 5.  Ohio is changed from leaning to barely Obama.

In Arizona, Magellan Strategies released a new poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by 9.  This vastly contrasts the two most recent polls here by Arizona State University and the Behavior Research Center that both showed a statistical tie.  With this poll, Mitt Romney's lead expands from 5 to 7 and Arizona is moved from barely to leaning Romney.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8.  Pennsylvania has been surprising underpolled thus far, for a state that is likely to be close on election day.  Only Quinnipiac and PPP have released polls there in the last 2 months.  Even Rasmussen hasn't released a poll here in nearly 3 months. As a result, Obama's lead expands ever so slightly from just under 6 to 7 and Pennsylvania is moved from barely to leaning Obama.

Finally, in Virginia, The Washington Post released a new poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  Virginia remains essentially unchanged in my projection.  Obama +3.

It is worth noting that tracking polls in recent weeks have shown a trend swing toward Mitt Romney since the primary battle essentially ended.  That said, with as few state polls are currently being taken, it is going to take some time for my projection to reflect some of the current dynamics in the race.  As the election draws closer and state polls are less scarce, my map will react much quicker. 

It is also worth noting that I put myself out on a limb with some of my projections.  Most poll aggregators like myself use wider margins before they will call a state in one direction or another.  Generally, states that are within 5 or so points are considered toss-ups by others, but with the number of polls involved and the overall sample size from them, I find that there is enough evidence to support considerably smaller leads.  In order to get a similar picture to others simply consider the barely states as toss-ups and you'll see that my current projections are largely in line with most others.

Electoral Math

Today, polls in several swing states (FL, PA, & OH specifically) were released in the theoretical matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney all of which result in color changes on my map.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by only 3.  Part of this may be due to the approaching Pennsylvania primary, but it's down from a 6 point lead Quinnipiac released 2 weeks ago.  As a result, Obama's overall lead in the state drops from about 7 points to just under 6 and moves Pennsylvania from leaning to barely Obama.

In Ohio, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac both released polls today showing Obama ahead by 6 (Quinnipiac) to 8 (Rasmussen) points.  This is largely in line with most of the polling here in recent months with the exception of a possible outlier released by Fox News released in the run-up to the Ohio Primary last month.  With these new polls, Obama's lead increases over to just over 6 points from about 4 and moves Ohio from barely to leaning Obama.

But the big news tonight is in Florida.  Here, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Barack Obama ahead by 7.  This new poll ages out some of the polls that were taken during the week leading into the primary there where Romney was shown with small leads in a couple of polls and moves Florida from a toss-up to barely Obama.

Based on the new map, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney now 321-206 with only 10 electoral votes in my toss-up column.  That said, there's a long way to go and anything can happen, but as it stands right now, Mitt Romney would have to fight and win in all of the states that are currently showing leads of up to 6 points for (FL,PA,CO and NV) Obama in order to win the election.

Super Tuesday Results

Overall, my projections in the 3 big states last night held up pretty well.  That said, I did pick the wrong winner in Ohio.  It was a tough race to call.  In the week leading up to the primary, polls ranged from Romney +4 to Santorum +6.  Even with that, the difference between what I had projected the gap to be and the actual results was only about 1.65%.  In Ohio, Mitt Romney out performed my projected by just shy of 3.5% and Rick Santorum by just under 2%.  My best overall projection was in Georgia, which is not all that suprising considering that the polling throught the last week of the campaign were pretty consistent. There was a bit more noise in Ohio & Tennessee to sort out.  While certainly in the margin of error, We Ask America actually had Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by 1, largely driving the difference between my projection and the actual result.

I'm pretty pleased with how I did last night although, I wish I could have my Ohio projection back.

Ohio Primary

Ohio will be ground zero tomorrow night.  6 new polls released today, all within the margin of error.  My final projection has Rick Santorum winning by a fraction, but the race is truly too close to call.  I would not at all be surprised if Mitt Romney wins here.  In combination with a win in Tennessee and a strong second in Georgia, it just might be the beginning of the end for Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.  If Gingrich were to win both Georgia & Tennessee (see below), it might lead to (wait for it) a third resurgence of Newt Gingrich.

Ohio Primary

NBC News/Marist College released a new poll this morning in Ohio showing Rick Santorum's lead there down to 2 points over Mitt Romney.  In my projection, Santorum's lead drops to just under 4 points.  I would expect that Rasmussen and possibly PPP are likely to put out new polls today or tomorrow prior to Tuesday's primary.  Game on in Ohio.  This one's going to be close.

Ohio Primary

Quinnipiac & Rasmussen released new polls in Ohio this morning showing the race here very tight, as I expected would be the case a couple of days ago.  I'm still showing Santorum ahead by 6 in my projection, but that gap is likely to close in the next couple of days as more polls flood in from Ohio.

Ohio Primary

In Ohio, Rick Santorum looks to be ahead by about 13 points over Mitt Romney.  Ohio appears to be ground zero for the two front runners this week.  Both Romney & Santorum spent the day here today, and after last night's results and the relentless campaigning that I expect will occur this week here, I'm inclined to disregard where we currently are in Ohio.  It's very likely to be different in the next few days.

Ohio

11/4: While a late fury of polls show a toss-up in Ohio, I'm inclined to think that Ohio will turn blue this year. Along with a handful of other states, Sen. McCain has been trying to take back Ohio over the last several weeks with a considerbale amount of success. Polls from 2 weeks ago look clearly different from what they look like today. That said, I don't think he's wuite made it all the way back. Obama +4.

Ohio

9/26: 12 new polls have been released since my last update in Ohio. 9 favor Sen. McCain, 2 favor Sen. Obama and 1 is a tie. Ohio has moved to barely McCain at least for now. Over the next few days, as some of the older polls in my projection are removed, it appears likely that Ohio will become a toss-up again.

9/12: The University of Cincinnati released a poll today showing Sen. McCain ahead by 4. Ohio remains too close to call, although it is likely to swing back toward McCain as new polls become available unless they show Sen. Obama ahead.

9/11: 3 new polls in Ohio were released today. 2 (Insider Advantage and Strategic Advantage) show Sen. McCain ahead by small margins while Quinnipiac's new poll shows Sen. Obama ahead. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead shrinks to 1 point overall and Ohio is moved back to a toss-up.
9/8: A new Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain ahead by 7. The largest lead he has held here since March. While I need confirmation of this poll, his lead expands to just over 2 points here and is moved from toss-up to barely on McCain's side. Based on the math so far, Ohio is one of only a couple of must win's for Sen. McCain (Virginia being the other). Without Ohio, the election is probably lost for Sen. McCain. 9/3: A new CNN/Time poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2. As a result, Sen. McCain's lead falls to under 1 point. Ohio remains a toss-up. I expect several new polls will be taken here over the next couple of weeks as pollsters try to determine if there was a convention bounxce one way or another. 8/26: Qunnipiac University released a new poll today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 1. This is down a point from their last poll in July. As a result, Sen. McCain gains slightly and now has a 1.34% lead. There is a chance with a small McCain lead in the next poll that he could move Ohio arely on his side, but for now Ohio remains a toss-up. 8/25: The Columbus Dispatch released a new poll showing Sen. McCain ahead by 1. As a result, he takes about a 1 point lead overall. Ohio remains too close to call. 8/20: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio sahows Sen. McCain ahead by 4. This compares to a 6 point lead for McCain last month. As a result, Ohio, like Virginia is a dead footed tie in my projection. Ohio obviously remains too close to call. 8/18: Public Policy Polling released a new poll showing Ohio as a dead heat. This is compared to an 8 point Obama lead just last month. As a result of this poll, Ohio remains too close to call, but for the first time Sen. McCain takes the lead in my projection. 7/31: A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Sen. Obama ahead by 2, as compared to 6 in their last poll in Mid-June. While Ohio, is still far too close to call, Sen. McCain gains just slightly here as a result. 7/22: Rasmussen's new poll in Ohio shows Sen. McCain with a 6 point lead. Rasmussen is the only pollster that has shown him in the lead in the last 2 months. Sen. Obama's lead has now been trimmed to just over 1 point. Sen. Obama loses 20 electoral votes off of his total as Ohio is changed from barely Obama to toss-up status. 7/21: Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll today in Ohio. It shows that Sen. McCain has gained 3 points since their last poll in June. As a result, Sen. Obama's lead shrinks to under 3 points and remains barely in his column. 6/26: Survey USA released a new poll in Ohio today. It confirms a tightening in the race here, first shown by the previous Rasmussen poll. For now, I am keeping Ohio as a barely Obama state, although it should be noted that John McCain spent today campaigning in Ohio and is likely to a within a couple of points either way throughout this campaign. 6/20: Recent polling data shows wide swings in Ohio and will take some time to weed out the noise. Ohio promises to be a highly contested race once again.