Upcoming Primaries & Caucuses

On February 4th, just 3 days from now, caucuses take place in both Maine & Nevada.  So far there's no relevant polling in either state, although I asm strongly of the belief there will be a mad dash over the next couple days for most pollsters to get some data in, so I would expect, I'll have a projection in both states.

On February 7th, caucuses will be held in Colorado and Minnesota.  Public Policy Polling (D) released a poll last week showing Newt Gingrich at 36, followed by Mitt Romney 18, Rick Santorum 17 and Ron Paul 13. This poll was taken immediately after South Carolina when Speaker Gingrich was peaking and is likely considerably closer today than in this poll would indicate.  I would expect there will be a mad dash to poll in these states as well in the next several days, although there will be such a rush to get data for Nevada (a likely battleground state), it might be difficult for each pollster to poll these states.

Primaries in Arizona and Michigan will be held 3 weeks later on February 28th.  There was 1 poll (Epic-MRA) last week in Minnesota that showed Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich 31-26 with Ron Paul running 3rd at 14 and Rick Santorum at 10.

Maine

Maine

9/28: A new Survey USA poll shows Sen. Obama's lead in Maine cut to 5. It is clear that Maine is now closer than originally anticipated. His lrad has been cut to 9 in my projection and aine is moved from safe to leaning Obama. Something to keep in the back of your mind. Maine awards it electoral votes by Congressional District (see my methodology post for details). With the race this close, it is possible that one of the electoral votes could swing in favor of Sen. McCain. There are some very likely scenarios that could make that 1 electoral vote decide the presidency.

9/22: A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Obama ahead by only 4. At this point, it appears to be an outlier but because there's so little polling done here I'd like to confirm the result. Sen. Obama's lead is still about 13 points and Maine remains safe it this point.

9/11: Daily KO's (D) released a new poll in Maine today showing Sen. Obama ahead by 14. This is largely in line with other polls. Maine remains safely Obama's.

8/15: Rasmussen released a new poll today in Maine showing Sen. Obama ahead by 13. This is a 3 point gain as compared to their poll last month. As a result of this poll, his lead expands a point to 17 and Maine remains safely Obama's.

7/26: Critical Insights released a new poll today dating from June 1st to the 27th. I strongly considered ignoring this poll, although this early in the race it will age out quickly. Additionally, because the poll was taken so long ago, I moved it down I notch. I usually put them in order of release because the time frame between the end of the poll taking and the release is usually only a day or two. As for the poll itself, the 20 point lead is near where Rasmussen was during the same time frame. Sen. Obama's lead expands from 14 to 16 points as a result.

7/18: Today's Rasmussen poll shows a significant closing of the gap since their poll last month. Obama's lead falls from over 20 points to just under 14. Maine is still safely Obama's.

7/10: A new Pan Atlantic poll has been found with Sen. Obama having an 11 point lead. Little is changed in this state which appears to still be safely in favor of the Democrat.

6/20: Maine is not likely to be competitive. Obama should be able to keep Maine in the Democratic column in 2008.