Overall, my projections in the 3 big states last night held up pretty well. That said, I did pick the wrong winner in Ohio. It was a tough race to call. In the week leading up to the primary, polls ranged from Romney +4 to Santorum +6. Even with that, the difference between what I had projected the gap to be and the actual results was only about 1.65%. In Ohio, Mitt Romney out performed my projected by just shy of 3.5% and Rick Santorum by just under 2%. My best overall projection was in Georgia, which is not all that suprising considering that the polling throught the last week of the campaign were pretty consistent. There was a bit more noise in Ohio & Tennessee to sort out. While certainly in the margin of error, We Ask America actually had Mitt Romney ahead of Rick Santorum by 1, largely driving the difference between my projection and the actual result.
I'm pretty pleased with how I did last night although, I wish I could have my Ohio projection back.
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