5 new polls get added to the map today in 5 likely competitive states (NC,VA,NV,MT and WI), two of which change color on my map today. Of these, North Carolina moves into the toss-up column and 15 EV are taken away from Romney in my projection. In the popular vote, Obama's lead expands from 5.90% up to 6.03%, after picking up about 180,000 votes in my projection.
First, in North Carolina, Survey USA released a new poll showing President Obama ahead by 4. Polls have varied pretty widely here over the last several months showing as much as a 14 point swing from Obama +5 to Romney +9. With this new poll, Mitt Romney's lead in my projection has been cut to just under 1% and North Carolina moves from barely Romney to toss-up.
In Virginia, PPP released a poll showing President Obama ahead by 8. This is in contrast to recent polls by Roanoke College and Rasmussen that showed Mitt Romney ahead here. As a result, Obama's lead expands from 3 to about 5 in my projection.
In Montana, PPP released a poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by only 5. This is down from 9 in Rasmussen's poll last month and down from 10 in PPP's last poll here in November. As a result, Mitt Romney's lead is cut from just over 10 down to about 8 and Montana swings from Safe to Leans Romney.
In Nevada, Rasmussen released a new poll showing Obama ahead by 8. This is in line with PPP's poll from last month and up a couple of points from their previous poll about 6 weeks ago. With this poll, Obama's lead basically unchanged. Obama +8.
Finally, in Wisconsin, Marquette University released a new poll showing Pres. Obama ahead by 9. While there hasn't been a poll here in nearly a month, it appears to be in line with previous results. There is some evidence of a potentially expanding lead, as Marquette's last poll here in March showed Obama ahead by only 5. I'm inclined to believe that Wisconsin will end up more competitive than current polls indicate, but for right now it's Obama +13.
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